MEMPHIS, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Fall harvest is advancing across much of the country, but high fuel costs, sharply different moisture conditions, and USDA’s latest supply estimates are creating challenges for farmers and grain markets.
Meanwhile, USDA’s October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report raised its U.S. corn yield forecast to 181.2 bushels per acre, above market expectations.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to discuss fall harvest conditions, USDA’s October WASDE report, grain demand and post-harvest storage.
Dry Conditions Persist Across the South
In his interview with RFD-TV, Williamson said dry conditions continue across the southern region, while recent rains have slowed harvest in parts of the western Corn Belt.
Williamson said fuel costs continue to pressure farm profitability, while weather conditions vary significantly across the country.
“Down here, it is still bone dry,” Williamson said, adding that the region missed the rain associated with the recent hurricane.
He said the dry conditions are disappointing to producers who need moisture, although cotton farmers still working to finish harvest have different concerns.
In parts of the western Corn Belt, recent rains have slowed fieldwork, but harvest is continuing.
Williamson said the Memphis area and much of the Delta have seen strong yields, with some areas reporting record corn production.
“South of the South Delta, I’m going to say it’s not a record, but it’s a very solid crop down there,” he said.
Larger Corn Crop Weighs on Markets
USDA’s October WASDE report raised its projected U.S. corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, increasing estimated production to approximately 16.034 billion bushels. Projected ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year rose to 1.849 billion bushels.
Williamson said the yield estimate came in well above what many in the trade had expected.
“The bulls continue to lick their wounds from the report last week,” he said.
He pointed to strong demand from livestock feeders, ethanol producers and soybean processors as factors supporting grain consumption.
Williamson said ethanol production remains profitable and soybean processing margins are also strong.
However, he said the market is still looking for additional demand to absorb the larger corn supply.
European Corn Production Creates Export Opportunity
Williamson also pointed to production concerns in Europe as a development to watch.
He said France’s agriculture ministry had lowered its corn production forecast to 7.2 million metric tons, nearly 50 percent below the previous year’s crop.
Williamson said the production decline could create opportunities for U.S. corn exports to Europe as buyers look to meet their needs.
He also noted that Chinese buyers were returning to the market following the country’s Golden Week holiday.
Despite a modest market bounce during the interview, Williamson said he had not seen much evidence of farmers increasing sales after the recent price decline.
He also highlighted the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report, saying speculative positions in corn and soybean meal deserved attention, particularly the amount of speculative length in soybean meal.
Grain Storage and Shipping Remain Manageable
Looking beyond harvest, Williamson said he was not seeing immediate concerns about grain transportation on the Mississippi River near Memphis.
“The Mississippi River here in Memphis is at plus nine feet,” he said. “That’s really not an issue.”
He added that river conditions were not creating drought-related restrictions and that grain elevators were working to find the storage capacity needed for the harvest.
Some of that capacity could come from temporary storage.
Williamson said grain elevator operators are already discussing additional storage for the 2027 crop, particularly as expectations grow that corn acreage could exceed 100 million acres next year.
“If that’s the case, some of these elevator groups are going to need to expand their storage capacity,” Williamson said.
