NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its 2025 Farm Income Forecast to $179.8 billion, down slightly from February’s $180.1 billion projection. Despite the adjustment, net farm income is still projected to rise nearly 40 percent compared to 2024, largely due to stronger livestock markets and a surge in government payments.
AgAmerica Lending notes that direct government payments are forecast at $40.5 billion, a 356 percent increase from last year, primarily tied to disaster aid and new farm program funding.
Crop markets remain under pressure, however, with receipts for corn, soybeans, and wheat expected to decline. In contrast, receipts for cattle, hogs, and poultry are forecast to be higher on tighter herds and stronger demand.
Rising production expenses remain a concern, with labor and livestock costs climbing even as feed, fuel, and pesticide expenses ease. Farm debt is also forecast to increase to $592 billion, but asset values—especially farmland—continue to support balance sheets. While the short-term outlook is positive, analysts stress that volatility in trade and interest rates could pressure farm finances in the longer term.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Livestock and government payments provide a boost, but crop receipts and rising expenses continue to put pressure on margins. Strong financial planning remains key in a volatile environment.
Low farmer shares reflect deep consolidation across the food chain, keeping producer returns thin even as retail food prices remain high.
November 25, 2025 03:02 PM
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Strong yields and higher cattle prices helped stabilize conditions, but weak crop prices and rising carryover debt remain major challenges for Eleventh District farmers.
November 25, 2025 02:55 PM
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Corn exports remain strong, while soybeans and wheat shift week to week on river conditions and global demand.
November 25, 2025 02:51 PM
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AFBF Vice President of Public Policy and Economic Analysis, Dr. John Newton, explains the factors contributing to the growing financial strain in the ag sector and the urgent need for swift economic support.
November 25, 2025 12:40 PM
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Tyson’s Nebraska plant closure and falling Cattle on Feed numbers send cattle markets tumbling. Analysts warn of tighter supplies, weak margins, and rising global competition.
November 25, 2025 12:05 PM
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A regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture, prepared by RFD-TV Markets Specialist Tony St. James, for the week of Monday, November 24, 2025.
November 24, 2025 02:56 PM
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Farmers with unpaid Hansen-Mueller grain should verify delivery records immediately and file indemnity claims quickly, as coverage rules differ sharply by state.
November 24, 2025 02:32 PM
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Olivia Bury, AgriSafe Network Behavioral Health Coordinator, shares about AgriSafe Network’s resources created to support farmers and rural Americans.
November 24, 2025 01:04 PM
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Jael Cruikshank, the newly elected Western Region Vice President, shares her story on this week’s FFA Today.
November 24, 2025 12:52 PM
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