WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Wheat markets rallied after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut U.S. winter wheat production and tightened the new-crop balance sheet. NASS forecasts winter wheat production at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2025, with the national yield dropping to 47.6 bushels per acre.
The sharpest cut came in hard red winter wheat. USDA pegs HRW production at 515 million bushels, down 36 percent from last year.
Soft red winter is forecast at 301 million bushels, down 15 percent, while white winter is down 5 percent.
WASDE projects all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million from last year. Ending stocks are forecast at 762 million bushels, down 18 percent.
USDA also lowered its export estimate to 775 million bushels because tighter supplies and higher prices are expected to limit U.S. competitiveness.
The season-average farm price is projected at $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower wheat production, smaller stocks, and higher projected prices explain the rally and put more attention on Plains crop conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Genevieve Collins from Americans for Prosperity discusses rising Texas property taxes, potential relief, and impacts on farmers, ranchers, and rural communities.
New data from the Illinois Farm Bureau show that farm financial conditions are stabilizing, even as debt per acre and borrowing costs continue to climb.
Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs joins us to discuss planting progress, weather conditions, and how geopolitical tensions are clouding his growing season outlook as input concerns continue to escalate.
This case could influence how much leverage grain shippers have when a preferred rail outlet is blocked or priced too high.
Farm Bureau economist Dr. Faith Parum says EPA’s final biofuel volumes keep corn demand steady and strengthen the outlook for soybean-based diesel feedstocks.
Researchers say stronger rootstocks are helping growers fight citrus greening.
