NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — USDA’s November WASDE reinforced what many in the trade expected: supplies remain plentiful across the board, keeping grain markets under steady pressure.
According to P.J. Quaid, Senior Vice President for Agriculture Options at R.J. O’Brien, the report delivered “broadly comfortable” ending stocks for the world’s major crops, with global soybean, corn, and wheat inventories all landing on the heavy side. USDA held U.S. yields at robust levels — 186.0 bushels per acre for corn and 53.0 bushels per acre for soybeans — confirming earlier expectations and anchoring another year of strong overall supply.
Domestically, corn ending stocks rose to 2.154 billion bushels, while soybeans ticked up to 290 million and wheat stayed at a burdensome 901 million bushels. USDA did raise corn exports and total use slightly, but not enough to meaningfully trim the carryout. Soybean stocks-to-use slipped to 6.7%, still within a manageable range given global surpluses and steady crush demand. With large world inventories and minimal surprises in U.S. numbers, futures markets responded cautiously.
The overarching message, Quaid notes, is that grain prices will need a demand spark — or a sharp turn in South American weather — to break out of their current neutral-to-slightly-bearish posture.
Farm-Level Takeaway: USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
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