We exported more wheat last year but at a lower value, according to economists

USDA data shows ag trade balance sheets are in the red with double-digit declines in the billions of dollars expected this year.

For wheat, economists explain that there is a unique situation happening.

“We see wheat exports rounded up to $2 billion, which is down 6% from the same period last year, whereas we’ve got a 6% increase by volume for last year, so we’re actually exporting more wheat, but at a lower price. So we’re seeing a negative value change over the last year,” said USDA economist Bart Kenner.

While the markets work to digest all the recent changes, some traders are following the numbers and they say they are showing a pattern.

Related Stories
Ag leaders say President Donald Trump’s State of the Union is unlikely to spark major agriculture headlines, but ongoing tariff uncertainty and trade policy remain key concerns, as does the debate around glyphosate and the status of the next Farm Bill.
Higher output keeps milk supplies ample, reinforcing expectations for softer dairy prices even as feed costs remain favorable.
Expanded global trade access boosts long-term export demand potential for U.S. ag products.
Agriculture avoided major disruptions, but trade uncertainty remains elevated.
The debate now matters as much as the policy — market rules and regulatory clarity depend on whether Congress can finish the bill this year.
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Friday that imposing duties without Congressional authorization exceeds presidential powers. RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney joins us to discuss the potential trade and agriculture implications of the recent ruling.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Bryan Combs with USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service breaks down new farmland data from the TOTAL survey, highlights key findings, and potential impacts for the ag sector. ASFMRA’s David Klein also shares how those trends are reflected in the current farmland market, especially in the Midwest.
Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt fertilizer shipments, raising costs and creating uncertainty for U.S. farmers ahead of planting season.
APHIS Veterinary Medical Officer Dr. Chelsey Shiveley discusses USDA’s biosecurity resources available to poultry producers ahead of spring migration, increasing the risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) threatens commercial flocks.
This year at CattleCon 2026, RFD Network’s Kirbe Schnoor caught up with Donna Emick from Pneu-Dart to get her perspective on why education, safety, and accountability matter in the field.
Nebraska’s largest wildfire on-record has burned 650,000 acres, with three other major fires also burning across the state, destroying pastureland and threatening cattle.