AFBF Economist: E15 Expansion Could Strengthen Corn Demand and U.S. Energy Security

A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol’s role as a major market for corn and a key pillar of U.S. energy security is back in focus as policymakers debate nationwide, year-round E15 sales, according to analysis by Faith Parum, Ph.D., economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). With gasoline demand projected to decline over the next decade, expanding E15 access is emerging as one of the most important levers for protecting long-term ethanol demand — and the billions of bushels of corn tied to it.

Ethanol currently consumes about 5.6 billion bushels of corn annually, but blend rates have stalled near E10, and outdated summer volatility rules restrict E15 sales in many states. Even with EPA’s temporary summer waivers, the lack of a permanent policy creates uncertainty for retailers and slows investment in pumps, tanks, and signage needed to grow adoption.

For corn farmers, the stakes are large. Without higher blends, domestic ethanol use could fall by 400 million bushels over the next decade. By contrast, moving entirely to year-round E15 could require up to 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn each year—a transformational shift for rural economies and biofuel markets.

Regionally, more than 3,000 U.S. stations already offer E15, and major automakers approve it for modern vehicles. Consumers also benefit: E15 often costs 10–30 cents less per gallon and cuts tailpipe emissions by roughly 46%, strengthening both household budgets and environmental performance.

Farm-Level Takeaway: A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Rayburn Electric Cooperative’s Chris Anderson discusses rapid AI data center expansion, mounting pressure on the electric grid, and impacts on agriculture and rural communities.
Bredenkamp discusses industry support, Senate challenges and the push for expanded E15 access.
Public lands advocates say the repeal could ease regulatory pressure on ranchers.
Industry leaders say producers could still benefit even with many operations already using reduced-tax off-road diesel.
For producers, the next proof will be actual export sales, shipment pace, and buyer breakdowns.
Smith says the measure would expand fuel choices for consumers while advancing energy independence.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Growers should work with local agronomists, check state registrations, and follow all restricted-use label requirements.
The BMO 2026 Wine Market Report describes the wine market’s current conditions as a reset, not a pause.
Ethanol production climbed to a four-week high while inventories fell to their lowest level since early October, according to energy data analyzed by the RFA.
Potato growers now have a fresh benchmark for comparing fertilizer, pesticide, and pest-management practices across major production states.
Corey Rosenbusch, President & CEO of The Fertilizer Institute, discusses fertilizer markets transparency efforts and the steps to ensure long-term stability for farmers and the ag economy.
Egg production accounted for much of the increase.