AFBF Economist: E15 Expansion Could Strengthen Corn Demand and U.S. Energy Security

A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol’s role as a major market for corn and a key pillar of U.S. energy security is back in focus as policymakers debate nationwide, year-round E15 sales, according to analysis by Faith Parum, Ph.D., economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF). With gasoline demand projected to decline over the next decade, expanding E15 access is emerging as one of the most important levers for protecting long-term ethanol demand — and the billions of bushels of corn tied to it.

Ethanol currently consumes about 5.6 billion bushels of corn annually, but blend rates have stalled near E10, and outdated summer volatility rules restrict E15 sales in many states. Even with EPA’s temporary summer waivers, the lack of a permanent policy creates uncertainty for retailers and slows investment in pumps, tanks, and signage needed to grow adoption.

For corn farmers, the stakes are large. Without higher blends, domestic ethanol use could fall by 400 million bushels over the next decade. By contrast, moving entirely to year-round E15 could require up to 2.4 billion additional bushels of corn each year—a transformational shift for rural economies and biofuel markets.

Regionally, more than 3,000 U.S. stations already offer E15, and major automakers approve it for modern vehicles. Consumers also benefit: E15 often costs 10–30 cents less per gallon and cuts tailpipe emissions by roughly 46%, strengthening both household budgets and environmental performance.

Farm-Level Takeaway: A permanent national E15 standard would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs, and provide a stable path for U.S. energy security.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
The pricing signals come as biofuel and corn groups continue to press Congress for permanent nationwide E15 access.
USDA Elevates “Plant Not Plastic” Initiative and Supports Buying American Cotton Act
North Dakota State University’s Dr. Shawn Arita joins us to break down new research on U.S. ag export losses tied to retaliatory tariffs and what they signal for trade moving forward.
NPPC President Rob Brenneman says rising fuel and input costs are creating pressure across pork production despite steady trade.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Drought and Planting Shape Weekly State Agriculture Recap
Jenna Stanton with the United States Cattlemen’s Association joins us to discuss beef import concerns, cattle market signals, and the latest developments surrounding U.S. beef trade.
Farmers will soon be asked to help shape some of USDA’s most closely watched crop and inventory reports.
RealAg Radio Host Shaun Haney joins us to discuss the latest U.S.-China ag trade agreements, market reaction, and what producers should watch moving forward.
For farm country, that caution can mean higher costs, slower service, and less local investment.
Rayburn Electric Cooperative’s Chris Anderson discusses rapid AI data center expansion, mounting pressure on the electric grid, and impacts on agriculture and rural communities.