NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Milk prices are improving in early 2026, but growing supplies and shifting product markets are setting the stage for increased volatility in the months ahead.
Analysis from Terrain economist Ben Laine shows Class III milk prices are expected to average $17 per hundredweight in the second quarter, while Class IV is projected near $19.50. That outlook reflects stronger-than-expected price movement early in the year, despite a global oversupply of milk entering 2026.
Production remains a key pressure point. U.S. milk output rose 2.8 percent in 2025, with continued growth into early 2026 supported by a larger herd and higher yields. January production was up 3.4 percent year over year, and reports of milk dumping in California highlight capacity constraints in some regions.
Recent price strength has been driven by gains in whey and nonfat dry milk, tied to strong global protein demand. At the same time, exports remain critical, with U.S. dairy shipments valued at $9.51 billion in 2025, helping balance growing supplies.
With supply expanding and product markets shifting, price swings are expected to remain elevated through the year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Manage risk as milk price volatility increases.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Price volatility is driving shifts in demand and supply innovation.
April 11, 2026 08:00 AM
·
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney explains shifting global trade dynamics and what they could mean for agriculture and energy markets.
April 10, 2026 02:27 PM
·
Aris Georgiadis with Dairy Management Inc. joined us to discuss the “Dairy Does More” campaign and how it is working to boost demand for dairy.
April 10, 2026 02:10 PM
·
Rising diesel and energy costs are squeezing farmers and rural communities, increasing production expenses and raising concerns about consumer demand for beef even as U.S. meat exports regain the Australian market.
April 10, 2026 01:23 PM
·
Rising input costs may squeeze margins and shift planting decisions. Scott Metzger with the American Soybean Association discusses fertilizer market pressures and what is at stake for farmers as planting season ramps up.
April 10, 2026 12:18 PM
·
Shaun Haney with Real Ag Radio joined us to break down the USMCA review and what Canadian producers and exporters should be watching in the months ahead.
April 09, 2026 02:39 PM
·
