AFBF: USDA Slashes 2025 Farm Income Outlook, Sets Baseline for ‘Significant Pressure’ into 2026

Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first Net Farm Income Forecast since September, providing an early look at the financial conditions facing farmers in 2026. The report also includes revisions to USDA’s previous estimates for 2025, reshaping how last year’s farm economy is viewed and establishing a new baseline for the year ahead.

American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to break down the latest forecast and what it signals for the broader farm economy.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Munch explained that the new outlook offers insight into how producers may fare financially in 2026, as income pressures continue across much of the agricultural sector.

The updated report also revises figures released last fall, and Munch highlighted how the new numbers differ from the September forecast. Those changes reflect shifts in commodity prices, production costs, and government payments that altered the final picture of farm income in 2025.

Munch addressed how rising farm debt and ongoing income declines are affecting farmers, and how producers are adjusting their operations and financial strategies to manage continued economic pressure.

Related Stories
Larger grain stocks increase supply pressure, but strong fall disappearance — especially for corn and sorghum — suggests demand remains an important offset.
Record corn and sorghum crops boost feed grain supplies, while reduced soybean and cotton production tighten outlooks for oilseeds and fiber markets.
Food prices increased in December, but not as much as expected, according to the latest Consumer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us to provide analysis on the January WASDE report and expectations for grain markets going forward.
Structural efficiency supports cattle prices and resilience — breaking it risks higher costs and greater volatility.
Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The FAO Food Price Index for November fell by more than 1 percent in November, marking the third straight month of declines.
Texas livestock producers face a heightened biosecurity threat as New World screwworm detections in northern Mexico coincide with FDA approval of the first topical treatment.
Rep. Michelle Fischbach shares her appreciation for rural communities and outlines how the Working Families Tax Cut is aimed to support farm families on RFD-TV’s Champions of Rural America.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer has developed a detailed calculator to help producers navigate the program’s requirements. He joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to explain how it works.
Henning Strauss, CEO of STRAUSS, joins us to share his company’s commitment to crafting tools that farmers wear.
Dr. Sally DeNotta with the American Association of Equine Practitioners (AAEP) provides horse owners with guidance on the recent outbreak of Equine Herpes Virus (EHV).