AFBF: USDA Slashes 2025 Farm Income Outlook, Sets Baseline for ‘Significant Pressure’ into 2026

Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first Net Farm Income Forecast since September, providing an early look at the financial conditions facing farmers in 2026. The report also includes revisions to USDA’s previous estimates for 2025, reshaping how last year’s farm economy is viewed and establishing a new baseline for the year ahead.

American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to break down the latest forecast and what it signals for the broader farm economy.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Munch explained that the new outlook offers insight into how producers may fare financially in 2026, as income pressures continue across much of the agricultural sector.

The updated report also revises figures released last fall, and Munch highlighted how the new numbers differ from the September forecast. Those changes reflect shifts in commodity prices, production costs, and government payments that altered the final picture of farm income in 2025.

Munch addressed how rising farm debt and ongoing income declines are affecting farmers, and how producers are adjusting their operations and financial strategies to manage continued economic pressure.

Related Stories
Lower U.S. ethanol production and stocks may support ethanol prices while strong export demand continues to support ethanol and corn markets.
More Farms File for Bankruptcy As Strong Farm Loan Demand Boosts Bank Earnings
Spring Fieldwork Progress Mixed As Moisture Slows Activity
Charly Cummings with Superior Livestock Auctions provides a real-time look at cattle market activity, demand trends, and what lies ahead for upcoming livestock auctions in Texas.
Real Ag Radio’s Shaun Haney talks about astronaut Jeremy Hansen’s historic moment in space with NASA’s Artemis II mission, and Hansen’s connection to agriculture as the son of a Canadian farmer.
Researchers with the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture are studying the clouded plant bug, which causes millions of dollars in damage to crops such as corn, soybeans, and cotton growing across the state.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

PLC and NCBA Chief Counsel Kaitlynn Glover reacts to the USDA’s new Grazing Action Plan, regulatory relief for ranchers, and the industry’s efforts to improve access to public lands.
Secretary Rollins is signaling a possible reopening of the southern border to Mexican feeder cattle as officials work to manage the threat of the New World Screwworm.
On this week’s Rural Health Matters, Dr. Jeffrey Gold raises awareness about Parkinson’s disease, shares insights on early detection, and offers guidance for patients and families in rural communities.
Nebraska Farm Bureau President Mark McHargue joined us to discuss wildfire recovery efforts in the state, impacts to agriculture, and conditions heading into the spring planting season.
USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report shows increased supplies across all major commodities, with corn, soybeans, and wheat stocks all rising compared to a year ago. Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities discusses producer and market sentiment ahead of the key report.
Acre shifts reflect margins, costs, and market opportunities.