AFBF: USDA Slashes 2025 Farm Income Outlook, Sets Baseline for ‘Significant Pressure’ into 2026

Danny Munch of the American Farm Bureau joined us to discuss USDA’s latest farm income forecast, revisions to prior estimates, and what the updated data means for farmers heading into 2026.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its first Net Farm Income Forecast since September, providing an early look at the financial conditions facing farmers in 2026. The report also includes revisions to USDA’s previous estimates for 2025, reshaping how last year’s farm economy is viewed and establishing a new baseline for the year ahead.

American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to break down the latest forecast and what it signals for the broader farm economy.

In his interview with RFD NEWS, Munch explained that the new outlook offers insight into how producers may fare financially in 2026, as income pressures continue across much of the agricultural sector.

The updated report also revises figures released last fall, and Munch highlighted how the new numbers differ from the September forecast. Those changes reflect shifts in commodity prices, production costs, and government payments that altered the final picture of farm income in 2025.

Munch addressed how rising farm debt and ongoing income declines are affecting farmers, and how producers are adjusting their operations and financial strategies to manage continued economic pressure.

Related Stories
Heavier weights and strong late-year slaughter supported December production, but lower annual totals highlight ongoing supply tightness heading into 2026.
Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and Public Lands Council published a joint press release regarding the advancement of legislation to delist the Mexican Gray Wolf from the Endangered Species Act.
Placements and marketings beat expectations, but declining on-feed totals and feeder constraints keep the supply story supportive for cattle prices into 2026. Dr. Derrell Peel, with Oklahoma State University, joined us to break down cattle-on-feed numbers and provide his broader market outlook.
USDA Rural Development Director for Kentucky, Travis Burton, joined us to discuss the Princeton facility (formerly Porter Road Meats), now backed by the USDA, and its role in expanding domestic meat processing capacity.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us to break down the recent Fifth Circuit Court decision overturning a prior Tax Court decision on self-employment tax for limited partners, the ruling’s impact on farmers, and potential next steps in Congress.
Americans for Prosperity Arkansas Director Ryan Norris talks energy infrastructure, regulatory reform, and the role of critical minerals in supporting rural America.
Pennsylvania Farm Show scholarship recipient Elizabeth Dice discusses her award, her background in farming, and her path forward in the agriculture industry.
Mike Steenhoek with the Soy Transportation Coalition discusses supply chain challenges facing agriculture as snow, sleet and ice threaten most of the Eastern U.S.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Tennessee 4-H members Jayden Hesson and Matthew Rochford joined us to discuss how 4-H is helping young leaders plan for the future of agriculture.
USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg joined us with a recap of the Malaysia trade mission and a look at USDA’s broader trade strategy moving forward.
Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition shares how extreme winter weather is affecting the ag transportation network and what producers should keep in mind as conditions slowly improve.
Matt Brockman, Communications Director for the Fort Worth Stock Show and Rodeo, joined us with a look at how the legendary event is moving forward—weather and all.
Strong White House backing supports ethanol demand, but timing now hinges on Congress resolving procedural — at the same time as they push toward a spending bill to avert another federal government shutdown.
Roger McEowen, with the Washburn School of Law, offers an in-depth look at two of the top legal issues of 202. Today, he walks through last year’s Waters of the United States (WOTUS) ruling and “lawfare.”