NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — A bigger Australian harvest is helping swell world grain supplies and weigh on prices heading into 2026. National production for the 2025/26 season is forecast at 64.2 million tons, up 5.2 million tons or 8.8 percent from last year, supported by widespread rainfall across key grain belts. Western Australia could record its second-largest crop on record, while Queensland and northern New South Wales continue to benefit from strong soil moisture reserves.
Improved wheat and canola yields, alongside expanded barley plantings, are driving the increase, according to Rabo Research. However, Australia faces tough export competition as large crops in Russia, the European Union, and the United States add to global supply. High carryover stocks in Australia and Canada are also limiting price upside, leaving domestic wheat values under pressure even as export demand stays firm.
Barley output is on track for near-record levels, putting more focus on export pace and feed grain use in domestic livestock sectors. Canola exports to Europe may soften with stronger EU production, though reduced sunflower output elsewhere and restocking needs could support non-GM canola prices. Chinese demand for Australian canola is expected to strengthen again in 2026, improving prospects for GM varieties.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Australia’s expanding harvest and global oversupply are keeping wheat and barley prices capped, though canola markets may hold firmer on shifting oilseed demand.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Global trade teams and summit discussions highlight expanding opportunities for U.S. corn and ethanol exports as nations explore renewable fuel options and reduced-carbon energy pathways.
October 20, 2025 11:17 AM
·
Slightly higher output amid softer gasoline pull points to steady corn grind — watch regional stocks and export pace for basis clues.
October 17, 2025 04:59 PM
·
Expect firm calf and fed-cattle prices — pair selective heifer retention with prudent hedging and liquidity to bridge rebuilding costs.
October 17, 2025 04:54 PM
·
The Louisiana cotton crop is the smallest on record, but strong yields are a silver lining. LSU AgCenter’s Craig Gautreaux reports from northeast Louisiana.
October 17, 2025 04:48 PM
·
Soybean farmer and Arkansas Lt. Gov. Leslie Rutledge highlights why the U.S. trade standoff with China is especially critical for Arkansas producers.
October 17, 2025 04:07 PM
·
Having a good read on fuel prices is a must during harvest, but one analyst says grain farmers should also be watching the crude oil markets.
October 17, 2025 01:26 PM
·
The new antitrust agreement between the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) aims to enforce antitrust laws and monitor market activity across the ag sector.
October 17, 2025 12:27 PM
·
Large carryover stocks continue to put pressure on commodity prices, creating uncertainty for growers looking to market their grain.
October 16, 2025 04:20 PM
·
Record crops are increasing grain storage needs, prompting safety experts to remind producers of the risk of grain bin entrapment during harvest.
October 16, 2025 01:26 PM
·
