Barge Markets Remain Volatile as Export Demand Builds

Strong export demand supports barge markets, but weather risks remain.

A towboat, known as a pusher, pushes barges full of cargo up the Mississippi River near downtown Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA_Photo by Matt Gush via Adobe Stock_828872155.jpg

A towboat, known as a pusher, pushes barges full of cargo up the Mississippi River near downtown Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Photo by Matt Gush via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Grain barge movement on the Mississippi River System is entering 2026 with strong export demand but continued weather-driven volatility that could keep freight markets unsettled in the months ahead.

In 2025, total grain volumes moving through the Mississippi River System rose 11 percent from 2024 — the largest since 2022 — supported by record corn exports.

Wheat exports through the Columbia-Snake River System climbed 23 percent, driven by stronger soft white wheat demand. However, soybean volumes on the Mississippi fell to their lowest level since 2021, and wheat volumes were the weakest since 2010.

Weather disruptions shaped much of the year. High water, flooding, low water, and ice accumulation created draft and tow restrictions during harvest. Spot freight rates reflected that volatility. St. Louis barge rates averaged $19.26 per ton in the fourth quarter. More recently, winter ice pushed rates near $25 per ton — more than 60 percent above the five-year average — while volumes temporarily dropped sharply.

Looking ahead, USDA projects 2025/26 corn exports up 15 percent and wheat exports up 9 percent year over year. Unshipped export balances are 20 percent higher than a year ago, signaling strong forward demand for river transportation once navigation normalizes.

Related Stories
USMEF CEO Dan Halstrom joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report for his analysis on the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement, which includes big bucks for U.S. Beef.
Record U.S. sorghum crop faces weak demand as China slashes imports, while corn farmers warn of rising costs, shrinking margins, and global market pressures.
Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.
Ethanol producers face a widening opportunity window as aviation and marine fuel markets expand, with the potential to add billions in demand if policy and certification align.
All eyes will be on today’s Cattle on Feed Report, which analysts say could give a clearer picture of where the market goes next.
Corn and beef exports showed strong momentum, cotton sales surged, and soybean sales held steady, though China remains absent from the U.S. market.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Industry leaders representing more than 40 nations gathered to discuss the future of ethanol and other corn-based products.
Farmers display a unique optimism — planting with the expectation that weather, basis, and prices will improve by harvest — asserting that the profession is an identity, not just a job.
Imported lean beef continues to play a critical role in U.S. hamburger and ground-beef production, with any added volume from Argentina serving as a supplement — not a market overhaul.
A fast-moving series of trade signals from the White House and key partners is resetting the near-term outlook for U.S. agriculture.
Stay alert for trade announcements—especially border reopening timelines, tariff threats, and developments in Brazil’s export flows.
Margin Protection and the new MCO add county-level margin tools — with earlier price discovery, input cost triggers, and high subsidy rates — to complement on-farm risk plans for 2026.