WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — After 43 tense days on Capitol Hill, the federal government has reopened. President Donald Trump signed into law the Continuing Resolution (CR) bill to resume government operations in the Oval Office on Wednesday night just before 9 PM ET.
The CR provides funding for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration, covering USDA and FDA spending through next year. It also extends farm bill provisions not covered in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act (OBBBA) for one year, extends the U.S. Grains Standards Act, and resolves issues around SNAP, with USDA now set to release those funds at any time.
Ag groups are praising the reopening efforts.
“American cattle producers need the federal government running at full capacity to provide critical services and market data,” said National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) Senior Vice President of Government Affairs Ethan Lane. “We thank Speaker Johnson and Majority Leader Thune for passing the funding package to end the shutdown and extend the farm bill...while we’re grateful to the trump administration for easing the burden of the shutdown on producers, it still caused widespread disruptions, and we are glad it is now resolved.”
President Trump said the six-week shutdown cost taxpayers $1.5 trillion.
USDA Data Flow Resumes
As the government reopens, we will soon start receiving financial data that we have not received in the last six weeks. Tomorrow we’ll get the first World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report in two months. Some estimates are already out, but one broker at Allendale tells us it’s anyone’s guess what will show up.
“If you ask me — based off of what we’re seeing in prices — everybody was kind of leaning on the bull side,” said Greg McBride, a commodity broker from Allendale Inc. “Obviously, the export situation with regards to a potential China deal has been the friendly side of the market that has been driving things here for the last, say, three or so weeks.”
Private estimates show there is a lot of corn on the way. Traders polled by Reuters estimate around 2.13 billion bushels of corn carry this year. That is 600 million bushels more than at this time last year.
On the production side, for the year, estimates have corn at a little more than 16.5 billion bushels, which is around 1.7 billion bushels more than last year. Soybean production, for the most part, is in line with the previous year.
Is Farm Aid on the Way?
With the shutdown now over, work could begin at any time on the farm aid package that many agricultural officials have promised will be forthcoming. In an interview with RFD-TV News, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig says it is an unfortunate need and hopes that some bigger issues can be addressed.
“Let’s be clear about this: any sort of assistance to farmers because of market dynamics is a short-term fix; it’s a band-aid,” said Secretary Naig. “We have to look at these bigger issues and, again, bring certainty and bring market security, market predictability, and stable markets. We also have to work on bringing inflation down in this country because those are the things that are creating the pressure for our farm community. So, while not desirable in any way, shape, or form, I believe it is time for some sort of assistance package.”
Naig’s statements echo those of U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, who spoke with RFD-TV’s Tammi Arender at the National Milk Producers’ Conference in Arlington, Texas, this week.
“We have really worked to do everything we can — I call it ‘band-aiding’ and ‘duct-taping’ and ‘bubble-gumming,’ as much as we can possibly do — you know, opening the FSA offices, working to ensure that we’re moving at least some of the payments out that were promised,” Rollins told RFD-TV News.
Regarding the potential of a farm aid package, Rollins said she believes one is in the works but really depends on Congress.
“It is in the works — of course, that’s Congress — but I’m working very closely with our partners over there; I believe that there will be,” Rollins said. “I think that as the market – and our row crops especially, but even dairy and a few others that are struggling – as we move toward the end of the year, as we’re looking at perhaps better numbers, a stronger market.”
While the terms of the aid package have not been released, several lawmakers have said the framework is already in place. Rollins told RFD-TV that the USDA is ready to work with members of Congress on the plan as soon as they return to work. However, she said she is hearing from farmers that a short-term solution is not what they want. Instead, USDA and the Administration should develop markets for them to sell their crops at good prices.
“So obviously, USDA will continue to move out the farm aid, but really looking to figure out how we get off this hamster wheel of check after check, and getting to the point where our whole, entire system is based on government checks,” Rollins explained. “But moving more toward opening up the markets around the world, creating these markets where our farmers can hopefully farm for prosperity and not just for survival. That’s really what we’re working to do.”
Trade Crosswinds: Will China Follow Through on Soybeans?
New reports out this week show China could be sitting on a mountain of soybeans ahead of any promised U.S. purchases, casting doubt on the trade deal between Trump and President Xi Jinping, which is less than a month old.
U.S. trade officials say they expect China to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans before the year is up, but no details of that agreement have been released. One trader, Brian Hoops with Midwest Marketing Solutions, said they may step in after the market begins to settle.
“They’re continuing to buy beans out of Brazil because they’re much cheaper,” Hoops explained. “China, how they operate, they want to buy the cheapest beans possible. They’re going to continue to book beans out of South America. But if they can pressure the market or make people doubt that this rally is going to be sustained or they’re not going to continue to buy U.S. soybeans, and bean prices fall 75 cents to a dollar, you can bet China at that point will step in. They’ll start booking big quantities of U.S. soybeans and fulfill their agreement.”
Reuters reports soybeans are stacking up in China. They found stockpiles at ports are at record levels right now, and crushers are holding the most supplies since 2017. Reports show that state inventories in China have enough soybean supplies to meet five months of demand.
Farm Bankruptcy Soars — Specifically Among Younger Producers
New details this morning on input costs and their impact on younger farmers and ranchers. Arlan Suderman at Stone-X says their high costs are putting younger farmers at a disadvantage, but says inputs are not the only shock for many of them.
“Until recently, they didn’t know anything but very low interest rates and higher crop prices,” Suderman said. “And now, those crop prices are basically down more than 50% from where they were several years ago to the lows that we saw just a couple of months back -- and while input costs are up. So that’s been a real challenge for them overall. Many of them can’t pay off their operating loans for this year, so they have to carry them into next year, which puts them further behind. They’re working through their working capital that they’ve been able to accumulate, and they’re heading in the wrong direction financially, and so that is increasing the stress that they’re feeling on the farm.”
Suderman also took a look under the hood at farm bankruptcies. He found that last year, they were up 22 percent, reaching 216 in total. That is the second-highest in recent years, since 277 farm bankruptcies in 2021. However, those numbers hardly compare to the 1980s farm crisis. He says farm bankruptcies were being filed at around 200 each week across the U.S. during that time.
