LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A new model outlining the beef supply chain shows how value shifts from pasture to retail, highlighting how timing, costs, and yields determine who captures margins.
Hyrum Egbert, writing in the Big Bad Beefpacker newsletter, developed a framework that tracks cattle through cow-calf, stocker, feedyard, packer, and retail stages using consistent weights, pricing, and cost structures. The model follows an 18-month lifecycle and aligns each stage with appropriate pricing benchmarks, from live cattle values to boxed beef and retail pricing.
The analysis emphasizes that margins are not fixed within one segment. Instead, profitability varies with market conditions, input costs, and the sector holding risk at any given time. Feed costs, cattle prices, and beef demand all influence how value is distributed across the chain.
Yield and shrink also play a critical role. The model estimates a loss of roughly 11 to 12 percent from carcass to retail cuts and an additional 8 percent at the retail level, underscoring how much product never reaches the consumer.
The framework highlights that changes in any one part of the system — from weights to pricing assumptions — can shift margins across the entire chain.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Margins shift across the chain based on timing.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Texas lawmakers secure funding for sterile fly production as officials work to stop the New World screwworm from spreading into the U.S. cattle herd.
March 03, 2026 12:20 PM
·
China may no longer serve as a consistent anchor market for U.S. cotton exports. Lewis Williamson of HTS Commodities joined us to discuss the factors influencing planting decisions, river conditions, and what producers are considering as they finalize acreage plans for the season.
March 03, 2026 07:00 AM
·
Falling commodity prices and rising costs continue to squeeze farm margins. Kip Jacobs with The Mosaic Company addresses fertilizer market pressures, nutrient use efficiency, and strategies growers can consider to protect their fertilizer investment this season.
March 03, 2026 05:00 AM
·
Weather Swings Shape Early Season Farm Conditions Nationwide
March 02, 2026 02:54 PM
·
Dry conditions may tighten hay supplies before summer growth. John Mays of Central Life Sciences joined us to discuss the risks of extended grain storage, how quality can be affected over time, and what growers can do to protect their grain while waiting for market opportunities.
March 02, 2026 02:21 PM
·
Crop value concentration keeps farm income tied closely to commodity price cycles.
March 02, 2026 01:23 PM
·
