LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — The U.S. sorghum crop is forecast at 9.94 million metric tons for 2025/26, up nearly 14 percent from last year, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service.
Despite strong production, domestic demand is projected to fall by almost 25 percent, leaving the markets heavily dependent on exports. China is the key buyer, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expecting imports of nearly 8 MMT and U.S. shipments potentially doubling to 5.72 MMT this year.
Still, trade tensions remain a hurdle, as China imposed duties and suspended firms earlier in 2025, slashing U.S. shipments by more than 95 percent in the first half of the year. Other buyers, such as Mexico, Spain, and Vietnam, are either steady or emerging, but none match China’s scale.
Australia and Argentina have stepped in to fill part of the void, with some sorghum already cleared for baijiu, a traditional Chinese liquor. The USDA projects a season-average farm price near $3.70 per bushel, with sorghum trading at a discount to corn. Analysts say Gulf basis levels will stay fragile until Chinese demand resumes.
Shoring Up Support for Sorghum
National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust, of Lubbock, said American farmers face a tough year as they search for new markets amid uncertain trade conditions.
“I think as we just look over all of agriculture, but certainly sorghum’s a part of that,” Lust told RFD-TV’s own Tony St. James. “We see today the use of the word ‘crisis.’ It’s been a long time since I’ve heard that word in agriculture, and I think, [when] we look at the economics, it’s easy to understand why. And for our commodity in particular, when we look at where we’re at from a market standpoint, you know, it’s a challenge. We certainly appreciate all the work that’s been going into trying to create new markets. It’s something that we really need — new access, new markets, and more diversity.”
Lust added that the 2024-25 sorghum crop could be 23 percent larger than last year. While biofuel demand helps, farmers still need buyers for millions of extra bushels, and food aid and exports to Mexico offer only limited opportunities.
“The reality is, our exports to China are down 97% this year,” Lust continued. “And that’s a significant amount that’s certainly hurting where we stand today from a price standpoint.”
