NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Brazil’s fast-growing corn ethanol industry is creating new risks and opportunities for U.S. corn producers. Analysis from Grant Gardner, Assistant Extension Professor at the University of Kentucky at Martin, shows Brazil’s expanding domestic corn use could reshape global trade flows and add volatility to corn prices.
Brazil has long been a major ethanol producer, traditionally relying on sugarcane. But by 2024, about 20 percent of the country’s ethanol output came from corn, driven largely by safrinha production in the Center-West region.
Corn ethanol capacity in Brazil is projected to start near 23 million metric tons in 2026 and could grow to between 33 and 55 million metric tons by 2035. Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop totaled about 5.56 billion bushels, meaning projected 2026 ethanol capacity would consume a meaningful share of production.
As more corn moves into ethanol and feed use, export availability may fluctuate, which could reduce competition with U.S. corn in some years but increase volatility in global markets and futures prices.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Brazil’s ethanol growth could shift the corn trade.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Industry-wide participation in SHIP enhances biosecurity and fosters global trust in U.S. pork, says swine health expert, Dr. Christine Mainquist-Whigham.
September 24, 2025 03:32 PM
·
Argentina hopes to boost demand, but critics see the move as a blow to American farmers.
September 24, 2025 11:35 AM
·
China is making strategic moves by purchasing more soybeans from Argentina and may soon follow the EU and reopen its market to Brazilian chicken exports.
September 23, 2025 01:21 PM
·
Farmers should watch for soybean export rebounds with harvest, while corn and wheat shipments remain strong and sorghum demand struggles.
September 23, 2025 11:54 AM
·
Rollins says the new trade relationship with Taiwan, which is committed to buying a significant amount of U.S. soy, could not come at a better time for farmers facing financial strain.
September 23, 2025 11:06 AM
·
The three-point plan was announced during remarks at the annual meeting of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture.
September 23, 2025 10:44 AM
·
