WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The Department of Justice (DOJ) is taking on meatpackers, investigating potential collusions in the industry. President Donald Trump called the investigation a way to reduce consumer beef prices, vowing that if anything criminal is uncovered, there will be a steep price to pay.
Commodity trader Brian Hoops, president of Midwest Marketing Solutions, told RFD-TV News the Trump Administration is looking in the wrong areas.
“We just don’t have the conditions right to increase supply at this point,” Hoops explained. “So, looking at the Packers, you know, I think they’ve done that before — to see if there’s any collusion — and usually that’s not the case, but you never know. I think it’s just a situation where the supply-and-demand fundamentals got very bullish here. And prices, in fact, did move higher compared to pork and to turkey. But really, when you look at it from an inflationary standpoint, beef prices aren’t that much higher today than they were 10, 15 years ago.”
Industry groups like The Meat Institute argue that packers have been losing money and are asking for a ‘fact-based’ discussion rather than a rapid investigation into criminal liability.
However, cattle industry leaders have long pointed to the Packers as a pain point for producers and consumers alike. R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard has pointed out the confusing inverse relationship between declining cattle prices and rising consumer beef prices.
“Look, consumer prices have been increasing while cattle prices were decreasing — an inverse relationship,” Bullard said in a recent interview with RFD-TV News. “This meant the marketplace was exploiting producers on one end and consumers on the other. And then in 2019, we filed an antitrust case against the four largest beef packers, alleging unlawful collusion. After that time is when we saw cattle prices trying to catch up with beef prices, but retail beef prices have increased further, much more, and faster than have cattle prices.”
Just this week, Tyson Foods — one of the “big four” meat packers along with Cargill, JBS, and National Beef — reported narrowing margins amid continued growth as the beef industry faced overall losses, and consumer prices still hover near record highs.
Tyson Reports Growth As Beef Segment Faces Losses
Tyson Foods closed fiscal 2025 with stronger adjusted earnings and improving results across most business lines. Still, the company’s beef segment remains under heavy pressure and is expected to post another year of losses as cattle supplies tighten. The protein giant reported modest sales growth and sharply higher adjusted operating income, even as higher cattle costs, limited fed-cattle availability, and lower plant utilization continued weighing on its beef division.
For the full year, Tyson posted $54.4 billion in sales, up 2.1 percent from 2024, and lifted adjusted operating income 26 percent to $2.29 billion. Fourth-quarter sales rose 2.2 percent, and adjusted operating income jumped 19 percent, reflecting better margins in chicken, pork, and prepared foods. But GAAP results fell due to higher legal contingency accruals, and beef continued to lag as high cattle prices outpaced packer margins.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects U.S. beef production to drop another two percent in fiscal 2026, and Tyson projects an adjusted beef operating loss between $400 million and $600 million next year — marking a second straight year of red ink for its most significant raw-protein business.
The rest of Tyson’s protein lineup is set to achieve greater stability in 2026. The company expects $150–$250 million in pork operating income as production rises three percent, $1.25–$1.5 billion from chicken on growing volumes and efficiency gains, and $950 million–$1.05 billion from prepared foods. Total company adjusted operating income is projected between $2.1 and $2.3 billion, with sales rising 2–4% and free cash flow reaching up to $1.3 billion. Tyson also reduced debt by nearly $1 billion this year and increased its fiscal 2026 dividend.
For cattle producers and the broader beef supply chain, Tyson’s outlook reinforces what the market already reflects: tight feeder supplies and strong cow-calf economics continue to pressure packers. Lower beef throughput and elevated livestock prices remain the primary drag, and Tyson does not expect relief until the cattle cycle begins to rebuild. Until then, margins will remain compressed even as consumer beef demand stays steady.
Considering the bigger picture on both cattle and beef prices, the timing of the DOJ investigation is a bit off, and that is unfortunate, explains Sean Haney, host of RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
“I would describe it, personally, as kind of unfortunate — you know, food inflation hits voters directly — and of course, President Trump is very concerned about the cost of living for Americans across the country,” Haney said. “Beef is really a visible component of the grocery store, and consumers have shown through these high prices that they’re willing to pay these prices, and demand has been unpredictably so strong through all this. But this market isn’t just about Packer margins. Which, quite frankly — to open an investigation into Packers and the consolidation at a time when Packers are the ones with negative margins, not the producers — is unfortunate timing for the White House, but this is really about tight cattle supplies, higher feed and labor costs, and robust global demand. And the optics may be good for the President here, to do this, and go after the industry specifically, the Packers, but it’s not going to fix some of the structural imbalances there from an SMD perspective.”
U.S. Meat Sees Record Export Demand for Quality
Export demand for U.S. meat is also extremely strong globally— and still growing — which is competing with domestic beef production for domestic consumption at a lower price point.
The American meat industry is working to expand on Central America’s strong growth in red meat consumption. It’s one of the many topics of discussion at the U.S. Meat Export Federation conference underway in Indianapolis. USMEF Central American representative Lucia Riano joins us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report with the latest from the event.
“I can see there that the growth is mainly being driven by consumer preference, but also, by the free trade agreements that we have running right now in Central America,” Riano explained, “In consumers, we are seeing a strong towards quality U.S. red meat products, and we also see that the free trade agreement has prepared and provided a perfect framework for importers to source high-quality U.S. red meat products to the Central American consumers.”
While Americans face news of increased beef imports from Argentina, a cattle herd known for lower quality and issues with foreign animal diseases — also a move experts say is highly unlikely to move the meter on beef prices in the U.S. — Riano shares that consumers in Central America continue to show increasing interest in American beef and pork for superior quality and food safety.
“We see that consumers associate U.S. red meat—beef and pork—with high-quality standards. They also think when they hear about these two proteins, consistency, and also food safety standards. So, this is what we consider is driving the strong demand in Central America.”
