LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Brazil’s expanding crop production continues to reshape global markets, raising competitive pressure for U.S. producers as the Southern Hemisphere growing season moves forward. William Maples, Extension economist with Mississippi State University, says early indicators from Brazil suggest another year of heavy export competition for soybeans, corn, and cotton.
Soybean harvest has just begun, with national progress still below 1 percent as of mid-January. USDA projects Brazilian soybean production at 178 million metric tons, equivalent to roughly 6.5 billion bushels, which would mark a new record if achieved. Strong demand from China and Brazil’s B15 biodiesel mandate continues to support expansion. Exports are forecast at 114 million metric tons, or about 4.2 billion bushels, compared with projected U.S. exports of 1.6 billion bushels.
Corn outlooks carry more uncertainty. Brazil is projected to produce 131 million metric tons of corn, roughly 5.2 billion bushels, about 2 percent below last year. La Niña risks and delays in soybean harvest could limit planting of second-crop safrinha corn, which now accounts for nearly four-fifths of Brazil’s total corn output.
Brazilian cotton production is projected at 18.75 million bales, up 10 percent from last year, reinforcing Brazil’s position as the world’s leading cotton exporter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if weather allows production to reach projected levels.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
“American soybean farmers—who are already reeling from your sweeping tariffs—deserve better.”
October 01, 2025 12:33 PM
·
October 01, 2025 11:55 AM
·
Farmers will need to closely monitor forecasts if the regulatory changes are implemented, as temperature cutoffs will replace fixed spray dates.
September 30, 2025 04:39 PM
·
Under this agreement, SCDA will administer a program covering infrastructure and timber losses, as well as future economic and market losses.
September 30, 2025 04:31 PM
·
With China’s pullback, U.S. sorghum producers must broaden their export markets. Building connections now could help stabilize prices and demand for the upcoming larger crop.
September 30, 2025 04:23 PM
·
Higher domestic rail tariffs and mixed capacity shifts will influence grain movement this harvest. Strong corn exports provide momentum, but logistics costs remain a critical factor.
September 30, 2025 04:12 PM
·
Sergio Bortolozzo, President of the Brazilian Rural Society, discusses the importance of global collaboration and innovation in empowering women in the agricultural sector.
September 30, 2025 03:35 PM
·
Malone, Senior Director of Trade Execution at Bunge, emphasized the importance of spaces where women can engage in meaningful conversations about global trade, supply chains, and leadership opportunities.
September 30, 2025 03:16 PM
·
Gov. Gavin Newsom has until October 12 to sign a bill passed by the California state legislature allowing E15 sales.
September 30, 2025 12:59 PM
·
