NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Government reports are still trailing behind. Export sales data for the beginning of December is expected to drop next week. Right now, traders like Brady Huck are preparing for more data to arrive this afternoon.
The Cattle-on-Feed Report is set for publication at 3 p.m. ET on Friday, and he said all eyes will be on those numbers.
“They’re anticipating [Cattle] On-Feed’s going to be 1.7% lower than a year ago,” Huck forecasted. “Marketings will be 11.6% lower than a year ago, and placements will be 7% to 8% lower than a year ago. So the big, big question… the big watch-out is going to be: What is that placement’s number going to be? And will there be any surprises? There’ll be lots of look into the regionality of where that on-feed supply is, with the lack of imported cattle from Mexico and Texas. How light are the numbers on feed in Texas and in the South? And does it ripple into Kansas and Colorado? We’ve seen light on-feed numbers in Texas and Colorado out there.”
The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) is also eager to get a read on the current cattle supply. USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom said that while producers have been enjoying some decent profits, they warn that profits could be higher if China had lived up to its part of the Phase One trade agreement signed with the first Trump Administration.
“We estimate that losses of up to $150 per head are being sustained by lack of access to China,” Halstrom said. “But it’s not just the $1.5 billion of lost export sales; it’s the halo effect of having China in the market, because the product mix is very similar among all of Asia. So, you’ve got Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China, all competing for some of the same products. For example, for short plates. So, the fact that you don’t have China in the market, the losses are upwards of $2.5-$3 billion a year.”
One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.
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