Cattle On-Feed Estimates Signal Slight Market Softening Ahead

Early Cattle-on-Feed estimates point to slightly tighter cattle supplies, reinforcing the need to monitor prices and timing for winter marketing.

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — U.S. feedlots are expected to show slightly lighter October and November cattle inventories as analysts anticipate modest declines in placements and marketings heading into winter. The latest pre-report trade estimates suggest on-feed totals remain below year-ago levels, signaling tighter feeder supplies that could influence pricing and marketing strategies through early 2026.

Analysts surveyed ahead of the USDA’s delayed Cattle on Feed report project November 1 on-feed inventories around 97.8% of last year, with October placements near 92.1% and marketings near 92.4%. Estimates for October 1 similarly point to softer activity, including placements at 91.2% and marketings at 95.9%, reflecting disruptions from the recent government shutdown that delayed reporting.

For cattle producers, shrinking placements may tighten fed-cattle supplies later in 2026, while steady marketings indicate continued movement despite cost pressures. Feedlots may face firmer feeder prices if numbers remain below normal levels. Lower cash and future prices may also signal that the market is ready for expansion through heifer retention and herd rebuilding.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Early estimates point to slightly tighter cattle supplies, reinforcing the need to monitor prices and timing for winter marketing.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Etgen-Way Holsteins continues building a nationally recognized herd focused on quality milk production.
New livestock pest research in Texas could strengthen tools protecting cattle health, movement, and ranch profitability.
Higher domestic ethanol blending supports corn demand even as weekly production and export volumes decline.
Specialty crop growers should confirm eligible acreage and application access early to avoid missing available assistance.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Grain movement remains active, but high ocean freight and diesel costs continue to pressure export logistics.
Corn demand received another boost last week as ethanol production climbed to a five-week high.
Chicago Fed lenders report producers are carrying more operating debt as repayment rates continue weakening across the Midwest.
Cattle markets continue supporting rural land values, but lenders say repayment rates and carryover debt are becoming a larger focus.
StoneX analyst Josh Linville says global supply risks and continued dependence on imported urea are keeping fertilizer markets on edge.
The lockout has not yet signaled a major disruption in the cattle market, but processing reliability remains important in a tight beef supply chain.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.