NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — China is rapidly expanding coal-based ethanol production, a shift that could disrupt global biofuel markets and reduce long-term demand for U.S. corn-based ethanol. The development, highlighted by retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale, signals a major pivot away from traditional grain-based biofuels.
Coal-based ethanol offers a lower-cost alternative that avoids reliance on corn or other crops. Production capacity has already grown sharply, with output rising 146 percent in 2024, and expansion plans are expected to push capacity above 10 million metric tons.
At the same time, China’s grain-based ethanol plants are struggling, with low utilization rates and financial losses in key regions.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Coal-based ethanol could weaken long-term export demand for corn-based fuels.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
This shift reflects broader policy priorities in China, including food security concerns and rising grain prices. Officials have repeatedly scaled back corn ethanol programs in the past when supplies tightened. The growth of electric vehicles and reduced gasoline demand are also limiting the need for traditional biofuels.
For U.S. agriculture, the change could reshape export opportunities. China may be less likely to import ethanol or distillers grains if coal-based production continues to expand.
Trade pacts with Malaysia and Cambodia unlock tariff-free and preferential lanes for key U.S. farm goods, expanding long-term demand in Southeast Asia.
October 28, 2025 02:08 PM
·
Shaun Haney, Host of RealAg Radio, discusses President Trump’s move to halt trade talks with Canada and Mexico over a commercial about tariffs launched by the Government of Ontario.
October 28, 2025 12:04 PM
·
The President’s trip to Asia this week follows a trade mission by the Iowa Soybean Association. Farmers say they were reminded that U.S. soybeans have an international reputation that can be easy to take for granted here at home.
October 28, 2025 11:28 AM
·
The review signals renewed scrutiny of China’s agricultural trade pledges and could reshape farm export opportunities depending on its outcome.
October 28, 2025 11:20 AM
·
The U.S.-Japan tech pact signals long-term investment in bio-innovation, connectivity, and secure supply chains — all of which can strengthen rural manufacturing, ag exports, and digital infrastructure critical to the next generation of farm productivity.
October 28, 2025 11:01 AM
·
Export volumes remain positive year-to-date, but weaker soybean loadings and slowing wheat movement hint at early bottlenecks in global demand or river logistics. Farmers should watch basis levels and freight conditions as export competition heats up.
October 28, 2025 10:58 AM
·
