NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — China’s ambitious effort to modernize farming through large-scale operations is running into a serious economic wall. According to analysis by retired USDA economist Fred Gale, falling crop prices, rising land rents, and weakening profitability are combining to threaten China’s grain production model — raising concerns that the country could face its own farm crisis even as U.S. farmers grapple with trade headwinds.
Corn, soybean, and rice prices have all dropped sharply this fall, with corn down roughly 20 percent from two years ago and soybeans off more than 23 percent. Futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange point to further declines into the year’s end. The downturn follows record imports of cheaper Brazilian soybeans, which have depressed domestic prices and rippled across feed and grain markets. Meanwhile, China’s official cost-of-production data already showed soybean, rapeseed, and double-crop rice farms losing money last year — before this latest price slide.
At the heart of the problem is scale. “New type” commercial farms now lease roughly half of China’s cropland and face steep cash rents — typically $330 (USD) to $670 per acre — along with machinery, fuel, and labor costs that far exceed those of smallholders. Many of these operators are now unprofitable, and Beijing’s silence on the issue suggests growing concern. Analysts warn that shrinking margins could undermine national food security goals, especially as authorities continue to push for higher yields and broader adoption of smart-farming technologies.
Farm-Level Takeaway: China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Lower tariff rates and new rail-service proposals may improve corn movement efficiency during early-season marketing.
November 21, 2025 12:01 PM
·
Crop producers face tightening credit and lower incomes, while strong cattle markets continue to stabilize finances in livestock-heavy regions.
November 21, 2025 11:58 AM
·
Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
November 21, 2025 10:30 AM
·
Row crop losses in 2025 are outpacing last year. With no disaster aid yet approved, many operations face a tough financial bridge to 2026 even as Farm Bill improvements remain a year away.
November 20, 2025 05:00 PM
·
Heavy rains are wreaking havoc on Argentina’s farmland, leaving nearly 4 million acres at risk and delaying corn and soybean plantings in one of the world’s top grain export regions.
November 20, 2025 01:21 PM
·
Farmland values remain stable, but weakened credit conditions and lower expected farm income signal tighter financial margins heading into 2026.
November 20, 2025 01:04 PM
·
Bangladesh recently pledged to purchase 700,000 tons of U.S. wheat and has also become a new buyer of American soybeans.
November 20, 2025 12:53 PM
·
Ethanol exports are expanding on strong demand from Canada and Europe, while DDGS shipments remain broad-based and supportive for feed markets.
November 20, 2025 11:12 AM
·
Jerry Cosgrove with American Farmland Trust explains why farmers and ranchers should start their estate planning now.
November 19, 2025 04:44 PM
·
