NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — China’s soybean buying remains far weaker than Washington’s expectations, despite political assurances made after last month’s Trump–Xi meeting.
Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale notes that China’s Ministry of Commerce refused this week to confirm the White House’s claim that Beijing would buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans before year-end and 25 million tons annually from 2026–28. Instead, the spokesman delivered a broad statement about “cooperative trade,” avoiding any mention of soybeans — a move mirrored across Chinese media outlets that repeated the non-answer without clarifying China’s intent.
Market behavior continues to contradict diplomatic language. China has imported nearly 96 mmt of soybeans so far in 2025, but only 16.8 mmt from the U.S., making the promised 12 mmt surge before year-end increasingly implausible.
Prices remain the most significant obstacle: U.S. soybeans still face a 13 percent tariff, compared with 3 percent for Brazilian beans, and delivered-to-port prices (the bean plus freight) show Brazilian soybeans running roughly $60–$70 per ton cheaper than U.S. shipments. That advantage is shaping buying patterns. COFCO made a few symbolic purchases around the Trump–Xi meeting, but China simultaneously signed a 20-mmt agreement with Brazil at the Shanghai Import Expo and has not deployed Sinograin — its reserve buyer — to procure U.S. supplies.
Record port stocks, weak crushing margins, and slow feed demand add to the drag. Analysts say China is unlikely to buy large volumes until margins improve — and even then, Brazil remains the cheaper, higher-priority origin.
Farm-Level Takeaway: China’s cost advantage with Brazilian soybeans and vague public messaging leave U.S. export prospects uncertain heading into winter.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
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