NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — China’s corn market is tightening as widespread mold damage reshapes supplies following what was expected to be a record 2025 harvest. Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale reports that continuous heavy rains on the North China Plain left large areas unharvestable and caused mold or sprouting in grain brought off the fields — sharply reducing the usable feed quality of corn.
Early signs of tightness appeared in heavily affected provinces such as Shandong, where prices failed to decline after harvest, and some reports estimate that up to 70 percent of market-offered corn is too wet or damaged for feed. Meanwhile, northeastern provinces like Jilin and Heilongjiang harvested high-quality crops, but rail constraints and snowfall slowed movement into deficit regions.
For feed mills, deteriorating corn quality has spurred purchases of local wheat and higher-grade northeastern corn, and early inquiries into imported barley and sorghum, as they attempt to maintain rations amid a weakening livestock cycle. Southern feed users remain cautious and are keeping inventories light.
Regionally, China’s limited 2025 feed-grain imports — down roughly 90 percent year over year — reflect ongoing controls following last year’s abrupt halt in imports. Russia has become the most consistent supplier, while U.S. corn shipments remain minimal despite strong global demand.
Looking ahead, Dr. Gale notes uncertainty over whether low imports represent a new baseline or whether China will return to the 40–50 million metric tons of feed-grain imports seen from 2021 to 2024.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Mold damage is tightening China’s corn supplies, supporting higher prices and creating potential demand for alternative feed grains in early 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Placements and marketings beat expectations, but declining on-feed totals and feeder constraints keep the supply story supportive for cattle prices into 2026.
January 23, 2026 04:40 PM
·
Congressman Adrian Smith of Nebraska joined us with the latest on efforts to secure year-round E15 sales.
January 23, 2026 01:12 PM
·
Decoupled base acres may amplify income inequality and distort planting decisions as farm program payments increase.
January 22, 2026 12:56 PM
·
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
January 22, 2026 12:40 PM
·
Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if the weather allows production to reach projected levels.
January 22, 2026 12:38 PM
·
Ethanol and corn groups are not hiding their disappointment over new reports that the bill to allow year-round E15 sales failed as Congress forges ahead on government funding, with another shutdown looming.
January 22, 2026 11:24 AM
·
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
January 21, 2026 12:03 PM
·
Corn and wheat exports remain a demand bright spot, while soybeans are transitioning into a more typical late-winter shipping slowdown.
January 21, 2026 10:36 AM
·
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
January 20, 2026 02:04 PM
·
