WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) March WASDE report shows mostly steady U.S. supply and demand projections across major crops, with modest price adjustments and shifting global balances shaping the outlook for 2025/26.
For wheat, USDA made no changes to U.S. supply and use but raised the season-average farm price 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel. Globally, supplies and consumption increased slightly, while ending stocks were trimmed modestly, though they still remain at a five-year high.
The U.S. corn outlook was unchanged from last month, with the season-average price holding at $4.10 per bushel. Globally, coarse grain production increased on larger crops in Ukraine and Brazil, partially offset by reduced output in Argentina, while global corn ending stocks rose to 292.8 million tons.
In oilseeds, the USDA raised soybean imports and crush but left ending stocks unchanged at 350 million bushels. The soybean price outlook held at $10.20 per bushel, while soybean meal prices rose and soybean oil prices edged higher.
Cotton projections were unchanged domestically, with no revisions to the U.S. balance sheet or price outlook. Globally, production increased more than 1.1 million bales on larger crops in Brazil and China, partially offset by reduced output in Argentina. World consumption declined slightly, trade increased modestly on stronger imports by India, and ending stocks rose to 76.4 million bales, lifting the global stocks-to-use ratio to 64 percent.
Cotton markets remain under pressure while fertilizer costs and logistics risks escalate, creating a more complex cost environment for global agriculture and textiles, according to textile strategist Robert Antoshak.
Cotton futures declined modestly after tensions involving Iran intensified, slipping from about 65.6 cents per pound in late February to near 64 cents in early March before stabilizing. Antoshak notes the move reflects broader growth concerns rather than supply disruption, especially as energy and freight markets react more sharply to geopolitical risks.
For producers, fertilizer is the more immediate concern. Prices at the New Orleans hub surged sharply during the first week of March as Middle East disruptions curtailed supply and shipping flows through key export corridors. Antoshak says these shocks often affect planting decisions later, as higher input costs influence acreage choices and application rates across crops.
Regionally, logistics pressures are also building. Container freight rates are rising modestly, but maritime war-risk insurance premiums and vessel delays in Gulf shipping lanes are increasing costs more rapidly and filtering into global supply chains.
Looking ahead, Antoshak says tariff refunds ordered by the U.S. Court of International Trade are moving forward procedurally and could return billions to importers, though new duties under separate authorities could offset some of that relief.
With spring planting season approaching and global events affecting agriculture, producers are facing uncertainty on multiple fronts — from weather trends to geopolitical pressures on input costs. Craig Thompson with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA) joined us on Wednesday’sMarket Day Report to discuss how these factors could impact farmland markets and farm decision-making.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, Thompson highlighted upcoming March deadlines that landowners and producers need to be aware of, including applications for crop insurance and the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. He emphasized that staying on top of these timelines is critical to protecting revenue and managing risk.
He also addressed how rising fertilizer costs and shifts in grain markets could influence planting intentions and acreage decisions in states like Illinois. “Producers are weighing input costs carefully this season, which could affect what gets planted and where,” Thompson said.
Looking ahead, Thompson noted that discussions in Washington around the next Farm Bill may have significant implications for farmland values, landowners, and agricultural policy. “Legislation could provide more certainty for producers, but it’s important to monitor developments closely,” he added.
(Tags: WASDE, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Cotton)
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(Tags: Cotton, Fertilizer, Freight, Tariffs, Global Trade)
