LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Cull cow prices are entering 2026 at historically high levels, and while seasonal patterns suggest a mid-year rally is still possible, gains may be more modest than usual. That outlook comes from Dr. David Anderson, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension livestock economist, who says tight supplies remain the dominant factor supporting the market.
Cull cow prices typically soften in the fall as slaughter rises, but that pattern largely failed in late 2025. Southern Plains auction prices for 85–90 percent lean cows held near $163 per hundredweight from June through year-end. Nationally, cutter cow prices dipped seasonally but recovered most of those losses by December, even as cow beef cutout values declined more than 9 percent.
Slaughter trends help explain the resilience. Beef cow culling stayed exceptionally low in 2025, down more than 17 percent year over year, reflecting herd rebuilding efforts and a smaller cow inventory. Dairy cow slaughter increased modestly in the second half of the year as the U.S. dairy herd expanded to its largest size since the early 1990s.
Looking ahead, Anderson expects lean beef grinding supplies to remain tight, supporting prices into mid-year. While dairy cow culling could increase if milk prices weaken further, beef cow slaughter is likely to stay limited.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Expect modest relief on several produce lines, mixed protein trends into holiday buying, and softer veg-oil costs — a good week to sharpen forward buys selectively.
November 04, 2025 11:29 AM
·
RFD-TV’s farm legal expert, Roger McEowen, digs into the details of both the LRP and the LGM programs, two essential risk management tools for cattle producers.
November 04, 2025 10:34 AM
·
According to the new report, seven out of ten rural bankers support President Trump’s recent trade steps with China, expressing cautious optimism about future export potential.
November 03, 2025 01:36 PM
·
Brooks York with Agri-Sompo discusses how this year’s pricing period played out and what it could mean for farmers heading into the end of the season.
November 03, 2025 12:54 PM
·
An import lag for ground beef will likely look different than last year’s egg shortage. The difference comes down to biosecurity and market flexibility.
November 03, 2025 12:07 PM
·
A rescheduled WASDE, China’s soybean squeeze, barge bottlenecks, and premium beef demand all collide this week — with cash decisions, basis, and risk plans on the line.
November 03, 2025 09:23 AM
·
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
November 02, 2025 05:06 AM
·
America’s love for burgers depends on open markets. Without lean beef imports, prices would skyrocket, crushing demand and destabilizing the beef industry.
November 01, 2025 09:01 AM
·
High milk production and soft retail demand are squeezing prices and margins — making careful feed and risk management essential through year-end.
November 01, 2025 06:54 AM
·
