LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD News) — Drought is limiting hopes for U.S. beef cow herd expansion and could keep cattle prices historically high into 2027.
Dr. Dave Weaber with Terrain says more than three-quarters of the beef cow herd is under drought conditions. Long-term forecasts point to stronger El Niño influence later this summer and fall, but that may arrive too late to help many cow-calf operations.
Beef cow slaughter remains below last year, but drought-related culling is still occurring. Auction data also show more very light calves moving off ranches, likely tied to early weaning and limited feed availability.
Feeder cattle supplies remain tight. New World screwworm concerns at the Texas-Mexico border are also complicating cattle movement and delaying the reopening of live cattle trade with Mexico.
Weaber expects only small herd expansion, if any, going into 2027. Feeder cattle and calf prices are forecast to remain at record highs as supplies stay short and beef demand holds.
