Economists on Interest Rates: “I wish we had a crystal ball to know what’s next”

Borrowing costs are at the top of farmers’ minds as they get ready to plant for the year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell left interest rates unchanged last week. Economists say it is anyone’s guess where the year will go, but warn you need to be prepared.

“I wish we had a crystal ball to know what’s next, and I would say that what you don’t want to do is just cross your fingers and hope interest rates keep falling. Not doing anything is just as risky as taking an all-in position either way. So what we’ve seen a lot of people do is somewhere meet in the middle where they try to get to a risk rate neutral stance where half the debts floating, half the debts fixed. If rates go up, great, you have protection in place. If rates keep falling, great, half the debt keeps on floating down lower, too,” said Josh Cannington with StoneX.

Carrington says it is important to make use of market tools, like swap options, which could allow farmers to choose which risks they want to take.

Related Stories
Disease risks remain a key factor to watch heading into fall.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch explains how the Emergency Livestock Relief Program application process differs from other USDA aid programs.
According to the National Council of Farmers Cooperatives (NCFC), President and CEO Chuck Conner says, there is only one other option besides addressing ag labor shortages.
For rural communities, this shift could mean new housing options for farmworkers and young families priced out of metro markets.
The modest cut should slightly reduce borrowing costs on operating loans, land notes, and equipment financing for agriculture, giving some relief to producers under heavy debt loads.
Produce markets are in transition as fall approaches, with leafy greens and berries under pressure, while vegetables like celery, broccoli, and cauliflower are finding firmer ground.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

University of Illinois Ag Economist Gary Schnitker says early projections indicate soybeans will be more profitable than corn in 2026.
Evan Keppy, a member of Iowa’s North Scott FFA Chapter, shares how the National FFA Organization helped shape his leadership skills.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joins us to provide an updated analysis of projected ARC and PLC payments and potential delays due to the ongoing government shutdown.
Approximately 42,000 birds were affected in the outbreak, officials said.
Beef demand could be influencing other economic sectors, as consumers adjust spending habits to prioritize higher-priced beef products.
AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.