Turkey Talk: AFBF Economist Provides Industry Outlook Ahead of Increased Thanksgiving Demand

AFBF Economist Bearnt Nelson joins us with insights into current turkey flock sizes, HPAI concerns, and production impacts on holiday demand.

DES MOINES, Iowa (RFD-TV) — With Thanksgiving just weeks away, many shoppers are beginning to add turkey to their grocery lists. But after a relatively quiet summer, High-Path Avian Influenza (HPAI) and another poultry disease are once again being detected in turkey flocks across the Upper Midwest, raising questions about potential impacts on supply and prices during the holiday season.

Bearnt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to share the latest outlook.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Nelson discussed the recent uptick in HPAI cases, following several months of slowdown, and how the resurgence of the virus could impact turkey production. He also reviewed the USDA’s latest “Turkeys Raised” report, which offers insights into current flock sizes and what the numbers mean for upcoming holiday demand.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving, Nelson shared what consumers can expect at the checkout counter, including potential price trends and availability of holiday birds as farmers and processors work to keep the supply chain steady amid ongoing disease concerns.

Related Stories
The NCBA says the Senate Farm Bill strengthens key cattle programs but leaves Proposition 12 and year-round E15 unresolved while officials respond to New World screwworm cases.
Texas livestock specialists say the pasture mealybug, an invasive insect, has been confirmed in 70 counties since its discovery in 2025.
South Texas producers remain on alert for New World screwworm, stressing that reporting suspected cases is key to expanding sterile fly releases and slowing its spread.
Dry conditions, tight cattle supplies and border challenges continue to shape the outlook for the U.S. beef industry.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

USDA will cover up to 75 percent of organic certification costs through the program. USDA officials say growers may also have additional opportunities for support through state-level programs.
After more than three decades in the classroom, longtime ag educator Mike White leaves behind a legacy of educating students while helping shape the next generation of agricultural leaders in Illinois.
Helena remains focused on developing practical technologies that address the challenges growers face while delivering measurable value in the field.
The next U.S. Drought Monitor is scheduled for release Thursday, providing an updated look at moisture conditions across the country.
Supporters say reforming the H-2A program is critical to maintaining a stable agricultural workforce and ensuring farms can continue producing food while remaining economically viable.
From fungicides to foliar nutrition, those late-season decisions can have a significant impact on protecting yield potential.
Agriculture Shows
Agriculture is the most important industry in the world, and Ag PhD Daily brings you the information you need to best manage your business only on RFD-TV and RFD+
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.