Economists on Interest Rates: “I wish we had a crystal ball to know what’s next”

Borrowing costs are at the top of farmers’ minds as they get ready to plant for the year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell left interest rates unchanged last week. Economists say it is anyone’s guess where the year will go, but warn you need to be prepared.

“I wish we had a crystal ball to know what’s next, and I would say that what you don’t want to do is just cross your fingers and hope interest rates keep falling. Not doing anything is just as risky as taking an all-in position either way. So what we’ve seen a lot of people do is somewhere meet in the middle where they try to get to a risk rate neutral stance where half the debts floating, half the debts fixed. If rates go up, great, you have protection in place. If rates keep falling, great, half the debt keeps on floating down lower, too,” said Josh Cannington with StoneX.

Carrington says it is important to make use of market tools, like swap options, which could allow farmers to choose which risks they want to take.

Related Stories
Kip Eideberg with the Association of Equipment Manufacturers details its campaign spotlighting the people who build equipment vital to farming and food manufacturing.
Improved export prospects and higher crop prices strengthened future expectations despite continued caution about spending.
While the agriculture industry hoped details on proposed “bridge” payments for farmers would be released this week, Ag Secretary Brook Rollins said the USDA is still working with the White House on the finer points.
Federal lawyers submitted a brief this week backing Bayer’s argument that federal laws governing herbicides like Roundup should prevent lawsuits over the popular chemical.
China’s renewed purchases signal improving sorghum demand at a time when export markets are otherwise uneven. Meanwhile, agriculture groups across the U.S, Canada, and Mexico want to protect close trade relations.
Pressure on grain storage capacity and stronger export positioning are pushing more grain onto railroads, highways, and river systems as logistics become a key bottleneck this fall.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

USTR Jamieson Greer signals a narrower trade deal with China, adding more market uncertainty. The Farm Bureau also supports reviewing China’s missed trade commitments under the Phase One.
Southern producers head into 2026 with thin margins, tighter credit, and rising agronomic risks despite scattered yield improvements.
Record yields and exceptionally low BCFM strengthen U.S. corn’s competitive position in global markets.
Raulston Acres Christmas Tree Farm in Rock Springs, Ga., has been in the same family for three generations.