NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Energy markets are sending conflicting signals to agriculture, with lower long-term fuel prices but continued short-term volatility in heating and fertilizer inputs.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s February Short-Term Energy Outlook (PDF Version) projects Brent crude oil averaging about $58 per barrel in 2026 and $53 in 2027 as global production continues to outpace demand and inventories build. Despite recent geopolitical disruptions, expanding output worldwide is expected to keep diesel and fuel costs generally softer over time.
Natural gas tells a different story in the near term. The Henry Hub price averaged $7.72 per MMBtu in January after winter weather tightened supplies. Storage levels are now projected to end winter about 8 percent lower than previously expected. Prices should moderate later as drilling increases, with averages near $4.30 this year and $4.40 in 2027.
U.S. natural gas production is forecast to grow 2 percent in 2026, while rising solar generation and modest coal use help meet expanding electricity demand from industry and data centers.
Lower propane prices are also expected as higher gas production boosts supply.
CoBank’s 2026 Year Ahead Report cites global grain oversupply, easing inflation, rate cuts, and major data center growth that could reshape rural America.
December 12, 2025 12:42 PM
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Plan for sharp, short-term volatility after unexpected outages; permanent closures rarely trigger major price spread disruptions.
December 12, 2025 12:25 PM
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Ethanol output softened, but underlying supply-and-demand trends indicate stable longer-term use despite short-term volatility in blending and exports.
December 12, 2025 11:47 AM
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Strong Farm Credit finances help cushion producers, but prolonged low crop margins could strain renewals in 2026.
December 12, 2025 11:42 AM
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USDA data confirms that U.S. agriculture remains overwhelmingly family-run despite structural shifts in scale and production, according to a new analystis by Farm Flavor.
December 11, 2025 06:00 PM
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Stronger sorghum genetics could enhance the resilience of bioenergy crops and broaden production options for growers in harsher climates.
December 11, 2025 03:38 PM
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American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down the scope of the U.S. Christmas Tree industry and what growers are up against.
December 11, 2025 01:53 PM
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Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
December 11, 2025 01:32 PM
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Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
December 11, 2025 01:16 PM
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