Ethanol and Corn Gains Traction As Marine, SAF, and E15 Demand Expands

Ethanol producers face a widening opportunity window as aviation and marine fuel markets expand, with the potential to add billions in demand if policy and certification align.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV)— The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the U.N. body regulating global shipping, is pushing for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with benchmarks set for 2030 and 2040. That’s creating new demand for low-carbon fuels, and ethanol may be well-positioned. Corn growers are also looking to the national adoption of E15 sales as another way to boost sales and the economy.

Ethanol Finds Footing in Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Ankit Chandra of the U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council (USGBC) points out that America already has 18 billion gallons of ethanol production capacity, record exports of nearly 2 billion gallons last year, and the infrastructure of ports, rail, and barges to deliver supply chains today.

The global Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market is forecast to surge from $2.06 billion in 2025 to $25.62 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of nearly 65 percent. Meanwhile, marine biofuels used in shipping were valued at $3.94 billion in 2024 and are projected to almost double by 2034.

For U.S. farmers, this could mean expanded demand for corn ethanol, soybean oil, and biomass as feedstocks for SAF and marine fuels. Success, however, depends on carbon certification standards, compliance with IMO and SAF rules, engine approvals, and investments in conversion and logistics.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Ethanol producers face a widening opportunity window as aviation and marine fuel markets expand, with the potential to add billions in demand if policy and certification align.

Could Year-Round E15 Bring in the Big Bucks?

According to a new study for the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) and the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), unrestricted sales of the corn-based biofuel could have a $25 billion economic impact while also helping to create a home for increased corn production.

Krista Swanson with the NGCA joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report for a closer look at the data. In her interview with RFD-TV News, Swanson outlined some of the study’s key findings and the primary impacts national, year-round E15 sales could have on the economy as a whole.

Swanson also discussed the upcoming corn harvest, which the USDA forecasted could be the largest in history, and how much of that crop still needs a home – and if higher-blend biofuel could be the answer. Lastly, she discussed how the study could impact regulatory decisions as Congress considers the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act.

Related Stories
Delays on year-round E15 keep potential corn demand and fuel savings in limbo.
Strong export demand supports barge markets, but weather risks remain.
Analysts warn the closed U.S.-Mexico border is straining cattle supplies and packing capacity. StoneX and USDA data point to long-term industry shifts.
USDA’s 2026 Food Price Outlook projects food prices rising 3.1%, with higher beef costs and falling egg prices shaping consumer trends.
Reliable canal infrastructure supports long-term access to global agricultural markets.
Corn export pace remains the bright spot, but stable ethanol export demand remains a critical support for corn markets.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Technology returns depend on management, not just adoption.
The sugar policy debate affects prices, trade, and farm stability.
Strong feedlot demand keeps beef-on-dairy calf premiums elevated.
Roger McEowen discusses how long-term healthcare costs for elderly Americans are reshaping estate-planning decisions for farm families and what producers should consider moving forward.
Farmer Jeffry Mitchell with the Mississippi Farm Bureau joins us for a spring planting update from the southeast region as drought, input costs, and fertilizer access complicate crop progress.
Cattle producers face mounting pressure as U.S.-Mexico trade talks resume, but expanding drought, rising input costs, and policy work to improve the long-term industry outlook.