Ethanol Output Rises While Stocks Steady, Exports Surge

Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.

corn crop aerial_adobe stock.png

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production jumped to 1.07 million barrels per day—about 45 million gallons daily—running ahead of last year and the three-year average according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Even so, the four-week average eased a touch, a reminder that plants are still pacing margins.

Inventories held essentially flat at 22.7 million barrels, with most regions drawing down while the West Coast built supplies to a 25-week high. Gasoline supplied—a proxy for driver demand—rebounded week over week, supporting blending, but remains below last year.

Refiners and blenders pulled in slightly less ethanol on the week, yet exports were the standout, surging to an estimated 138,000 barrels per day and helping move product with no imports reported in more than a year. Net result: more output, steady stocks, and stronger exports point to firmer plant demand into fall. Stronger plant runs are good news for corn demand and local basis.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
Related Stories
A rescheduled WASDE, China’s soybean squeeze, barge bottlenecks, and premium beef demand all collide this week — with cash decisions, basis, and risk plans on the line.
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
High milk production and soft retail demand are squeezing prices and margins — making careful feed and risk management essential through year-end.
U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) shares his outlook on the developing U.S.-China Trade agreement, and the ongoing impact of the federal government shutdown—now stretching past four weeks—on rural communities and producers.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to discuss what the Carney-Xi meeting could mean for Canadian producers.
Market analyst and friend of the show, Shawn Hackett, says Brazil’s shifting use of crops for biofuel production is a significant factor.
Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), shares his reaction to news of soybean sales to China, which is considered both “welcome news” and a return to near-normal trade relations.
Farm Bureau Economist Faith Parum discusses key outcomes from the U.S.-China trade agreement and the benefits of expanding trade across Southeast Asia.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the implications for farmers.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

With the U.S.–Vietnam agreement nearing signature, U.S. cotton, corn, and soybean exporters could lock in new demand lanes just as global supply shifts.
Enforceable origin labels could create clearer premiums for U.S. cattle and address concerns some producers have had with competition from foreign imported beef.
A court decision that overturns Enlist labels would remove two major herbicides from use and reshape EPA’s future mitigation policies for other pesticides.
Rural businesses report softer sales, tougher hiring, and restrained investment — a backdrop that can pinch farm support capacity even if posted prices cool.
Friday’s release will be the first WASDE report in about two months, and early estimates indicate a corn surplus is still on the way.
Tyson expects another year of beef-segment losses due to tight cattle supplies, even as chicken, pork, and prepared foods strengthen overall margins.