Ethanol Output Slips as Demand and Stocks Shift

Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol producers saw a noticeable slowdown last week, a signal that fuel demand and blending trends remain uneven heading into winter. The latest EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association shows production falling 4.3% to 1.08 million barrels per day — lower than a year ago but still slightly above the three-year average. The four-week production pace held steady at 1.10 million b/d, equal to a 16.9-billion-gallon annualized rate.

Stocks tightened overall, dipping 1.9% to 22.2 million barrels, with inventories shrinking in every region except the East Coast and the Rockies. Gasoline supplied — a key proxy for consumer demand — rose to a 10-week high of 9.03 million b/d, though still trailing last year by nearly 4%. Meanwhile, refiner-blender net inputs of ethanol slipped 1.0% to a five-week low, marking slightly weaker domestic blending activity.

Exports were the week’s standout, jumping nearly 47% to an estimated 157,000 b/d — the strongest signal of external demand and the highest in more than a year. With no recent imports reported, the export bump helped offset softer domestic movement.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Export inspections showed continued strength in corn movement, while China remained a key destination for soybeans.
Iowa Congressman Randy Feenstra says the proposal would allow retailers to decide whether they want to offer E15 year-round.
Allendale analysts say lower hog production has yet to generate the typical seasonal price movement.
The National Milk Producers Federation says AI adoption continues expanding both inside and outside the barn.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Corn exports are strengthening the trade outlook, but lower soybean movement and weaker demand from China remain major concerns.
Higher domestic ethanol blending supports corn demand even as weekly production and export volumes decline.
Specialty crop growers should confirm eligible acreage and application access early to avoid missing available assistance.
Corn farmers and ethanol groups are urging Senate action on E-15 legislation while grain basis values strengthen in eastern states.
Julia Andrus with Phospholutions joins us to discuss fertilizer market uncertainty, evolving grower strategies, and how efficiency is reshaping nutrient management decisions in modern agriculture.
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney discusses Canada’s record farm cash receipts, profitability trends in livestock and crops, and the impact of rising input costs in 2026.
Agriculture Shows
From the rapid technological advances in the business of farming to the policy that helps shape the industry, growers get unparalleled perspective from these guys. Max Armstrong, Mike Pearson and Greg Soulje: the names producers have long known and trusted for agriculture news, weather, and commentary.
Watch Rural Evening News on RFD Network to catch up on that day’s news surrounding agriculture and markets from across the world.
Every day on RFD Network, “Market Day Report” delivers LIVE coverage of agribusiness news, weather, and commodity market information from across the world. Our commodity markets coverage is updated every half hour to bringyou the latest agriculture news.
Farm Monitor shines a light on Southeastern agriculture and is the only weekly news and information program dedicated to Georgia’s largest and most important industry: agriculture.