Ethanol Output Slips as Stocks Build Demand Falls

Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol markets softened in mid-January as production declined and inventories climbed, signaling weaker near-term demand even as output remained historically strong. New data show pressure building on margins as gasoline consumption slowed sharply.

Ethanol production fell 6.4 percent to 1.12 million barrels per day for the week ending January 16. Despite the weekly drop, output was still 1.8 percent higher than a year ago and nearly 15 percent above the three-year average. The four-week average production rate edged higher to an annualized 17.42 billion gallons, underscoring continued run strength.

Inventories increased 5.2 percent to 25.7 million barrels, the highest level in 40 weeks. Stocks built across most regions and now sit slightly above the three-year average, adding to near-term supply pressure.

Demand signals weakened. Gasoline supplied fell 5.7 percent to a three-year low, pulling implied ethanol demand lower even as refiner and blender ethanol use rose modestly. Exports provided a bright spot, surging more than 80 percent week over week.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Related Stories
John Mays with Central Life Sciences joins us to discuss the importance of pest management ahead of wheat storage and how protecting grain quality can support stronger marketing opportunities.
University of Arkansas researchers are working to help farmers reduce grain waste and get more value out of their crops.
According to a tweet from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, the full House vote on the Farm Bill will be held until lawmakers return from recess.
Louisiana soybean farmers are moving quickly to get this year’s crop planted during a key window for yield potential.
The House is moving forward with debate on the Farm Bill after a lengthy session in the House Rules Committee cleared the legislation for floor consideration.
Data center growth can bring opportunities, but competition for land, water, and power will matter more in rural areas.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Expanded export financing could provide greater support for ag sales abroad if buyers and lenders use the additional tools.
Kansas Congressman Derek Schmidt joins us to discuss House passage of the Farm Bill, its potential impact on farm profitability and stability, key policy compromises, and the outlook for Senate consideration.
The farm bill is still moving, but the toughest amendment fights were pushed into today’s session. ASA President Scott Metzger joins us to discuss the risks of tariff actions on soybean exports, concerns over trade policy and production costs, and the importance of Farm Bill updates.
A more independent UAE could add long-term pressure and volatility to energy markets, affecting fuel and fertilizer costs.
Clean power growth remains strong, but slower deal-making could affect future rural energy and land-use opportunities.
Higher biofuel mandates boost long-term crop demand, but a tighter D4 market may pressure biofuel feedstocks and pose new soybean oil demand risks.