USDA Livestock Outlook Shows Tight Beef Supply Pressure

Tight cattle supplies should keep beef prices supported, while dairy, pork, and poultry are poised for greater production growth.

ARGENTINIAN CATTLE_PHOTO BY FOTO4440 VIA AdobeStock_256925881.jpg

Steers in a pasture in Pampas, Argentina.

Photo by foto4440 via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Tight cattle supplies remain the strongest signal in the USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, with beef production lowered for 2026 and expected to decline again in 2027. USDA now forecasts 2026 beef production at 25.547 billion pounds, down 243 million pounds from last month.

Cattle prices are projected to be higher this year, with new highs expected in 2027 as supplies stay limited. Beef imports are forecast to be higher in 2026, while exports are expected to soften next year due to lower production.

Dairy looks steadier. USDA projects the dairy herd at 9.620 million head in both 2026 and 2027, with higher milk yield lifting 2027 production to 236.0 billion pounds. The 2027 all-milk price is forecast at $20.95 per hundredweight.

Pork production is expected to rise 1 percent in 2027, while hog prices decline. Pork exports are forecast to rise, driven by demand in the Western Hemisphere.

Broiler, egg, and turkey production are all projected to increase year-over-year in 2027.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Tight cattle supplies should keep beef prices supported, while dairy, pork, and poultry are poised for greater production growth.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Corey Geiger joined us to discuss his career in the dairy industry, receiving the Holstein Association USA Distinguished Leadership Award, priorities for young producers, and major takeaways from the National Holstein Convention.
Huma says growers are placing greater emphasis on intensive management as soybean production continues to evolve
Higher production costs remain a challenge, but growers say recent H-2A changes provide some labor relief.
As weather reduced this year’s crop, USDA also highlighted George Washington’s cherry legacy ahead of America 250.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Pasture Stress Spreads While Row Crops Hold Steady
SNAP continued to account for the largest share of food assistance spending as participation and overall program costs increased.
A new report says stronger communication can help farmers navigate a more cautious lending environment.
USDA says states with higher SNAP payment error rates could face new financial responsibility under recently approved reforms.
Heavier cattle and hog weights helped offset lower slaughter, but overall beef and pork production remained below year-ago levels.
Productivity gains helped offset a smaller breeding herd, keeping overall U.S. pork supplies relatively steady