NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Ethanol production edged up to a five-week high as harvest advances. EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association show output at 1.07 million barrels per day (b/d) — about 45.11 million gallons/day — up 0.3 percent week over week, 3.1 percentcent above last year, and 4.2 percent over the three-year average. The four-week average eased 0.5 percent to 1.04 million b/d, an annualized pace of 16.00 billion gallons.
Inventories slipped 0.4 percent to 22.6 million barrels, yet remained 1.6 percent above a year ago and 4.1 percent over the three-year average. Stocks declined everywhere except the East Coast (PADD 1) and Rocky Mountains (PADD 4). Gasoline supplied — a demand proxy — fell 5.2 percent to 8.46 million barrels per day (b/d) (a 19-week low, ~129.97 bg annualized), 1.9 percent under last year and 3.3% below the three-year average.
Refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol rose 2.6 percent to 915,000 barrels per day (b/d) (~14.07 bg annualized), 0.3 percent above last year and 0.4 percent over the three-year average. Exports eased 21.7 percent to an estimated 108,000 b/d (~4.5 million gal/day). EIA has shown no imports for over a year.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Slightly higher output amid softer gasoline pull points to steady corn grind — watch regional stocks and export pace for basis clues.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
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