Ethanol Production Falls While Demand and Exports Shift

Lower U.S. ethanol production and stocks may support ethanol prices while strong export demand continues to support ethanol and corn markets.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol production declined last week while demand softened, even as exports and blending activity showed signs of strength. Data from the Energy Information Administration shows production dropped 3.7 percent to 1.08 million barrels per day, the lowest weekly output since January.

Despite the weekly decline, production remained 1.1 percent higher than a year ago and above the three-year average. The four-week average also slipped slightly to 1.10 million barrels per day, reflecting a modest pullback in overall output levels.

Ethanol inventories tightened, falling 4.3 percent to 26.0 million barrels, with stock declines reported across nearly all regions. At the same time, gasoline demand — a key indicator for ethanol use — dropped 2.7 percent to a four-week low, though it remained above year-ago levels.

Refiner and blender inputs increased 1.6 percent to a 14-week high, signaling continued strength in blending. Ethanol exports also rose 3.4 percent, extending a trend of solid international demand.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower production and stocks may support ethanol prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Ethanol Exports Remain Strong Despite February Decline

U.S. ethanol exports eased slightly in February but remained historically strong. Shipments totaled 209.9 million gallons, down 1 percent from January but still 36 percent above last year.

Canada remained the top buyer, though volumes dropped 12 percent to a 10-month low. The European Union surged to a record 49.8 million gallons, led by strong demand from the Netherlands. India also increased purchases sharply, while Brazil pulled back from January levels but still exceeded last year’s pace.

Exports were broadly distributed across multiple markets, including Colombia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and South Korea. Year-to-date exports reached 421.9 million gallons, up 25 percent from the same period last year. Imports into the U.S. remained minimal.

Dried distillers’ grains (DDGS) exports declined 9 percent in February. Lower shipments to Mexico drove much of the drop, while demand improved in South Korea, Indonesia, and Morocco. Year-to-date DDGS exports remain strong, up 16 percent from last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong export demand continues supporting ethanol and corn markets.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Related Stories
China’s stricter inspection rules prompt Cargill to pause soybean exports from Brazil, briefly lifting U.S. soybean prices as traders anticipate potential shifts in global trade, as export demand remains supportive across all major U.S. commodities.
Suderman joins Tony St. James in the RFD Studios to discuss how geopolitical tensions are triggering global transport disruptions, new inflation pressures, and other challenges for agriculture to navigate.
Farm Bureau economist Dr. Faith Parum explains how geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East could further tighten fertilizer movement, increase fuel costs, and complicate planting decisions for U.S. farmers this spring.
Missouri Farm Bureau President Garrett Hawkins discusses the potential impact of data center growth on farmland, the Landowner Fairness Act, and key priorities for Missouri farmers heading into planting season.
Dr. David Anderson with Texas A&M University AgriLife Extension discusses how geopolitical tensions and the Middle East, along with export disruptions in the Chinese market, will shape cattle markets in the months ahead.
Refining shifts could influence fuel and input costs.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Technology-driven lending decisions may shape the future availability of farm credit.
Logistics remain firm, but freight costs continue to rise.
Strong corn demand and cotton shipments support export outlook.
Fertilizer investigation may impact input costs and margins.
New research shows that most farmers do not have a formal resiliency plan in place. Devin Fuhrman highlights how Nationwide’s Farm Risk Ready initiative supports farmers in building stronger, more resilient operations.
Big oils-and-fats volumes can support crush demand, but fuel markets can quickly tighten supplies.