Ethanol Production Falls While Demand and Exports Shift

Lower U.S. ethanol production and stocks may support ethanol prices while strong export demand continues to support ethanol and corn markets.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. ethanol production declined last week while demand softened, even as exports and blending activity showed signs of strength. Data from the Energy Information Administration shows production dropped 3.7 percent to 1.08 million barrels per day, the lowest weekly output since January.

Despite the weekly decline, production remained 1.1 percent higher than a year ago and above the three-year average. The four-week average also slipped slightly to 1.10 million barrels per day, reflecting a modest pullback in overall output levels.

Ethanol inventories tightened, falling 4.3 percent to 26.0 million barrels, with stock declines reported across nearly all regions. At the same time, gasoline demand — a key indicator for ethanol use — dropped 2.7 percent to a four-week low, though it remained above year-ago levels.

Refiner and blender inputs increased 1.6 percent to a 14-week high, signaling continued strength in blending. Ethanol exports also rose 3.4 percent, extending a trend of solid international demand.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower production and stocks may support ethanol prices.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Ethanol Exports Remain Strong Despite February Decline

U.S. ethanol exports eased slightly in February but remained historically strong. Shipments totaled 209.9 million gallons, down 1 percent from January but still 36 percent above last year.

Canada remained the top buyer, though volumes dropped 12 percent to a 10-month low. The European Union surged to a record 49.8 million gallons, led by strong demand from the Netherlands. India also increased purchases sharply, while Brazil pulled back from January levels but still exceeded last year’s pace.

Exports were broadly distributed across multiple markets, including Colombia, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and South Korea. Year-to-date exports reached 421.9 million gallons, up 25 percent from the same period last year. Imports into the U.S. remained minimal.

Dried distillers’ grains (DDGS) exports declined 9 percent in February. Lower shipments to Mexico drove much of the drop, while demand improved in South Korea, Indonesia, and Morocco. Year-to-date DDGS exports remain strong, up 16 percent from last year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong export demand continues supporting ethanol and corn markets.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Related Stories
A regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture, prepared by RFD-TV Markets Specialist Tony St. James, for the week of Monday, November 24, 2025.
One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.
Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio, provides the latest insight into the timing, expectations, and broader considerations of the potential aid package, despite increasing exports to China.
According to November’s Cattle on Feed Report, Nebraska now leads the nation in cattle feeding as tighter supplies continue to reshape regional market power and long-term price dynamics.
Higher rail tariffs and tighter Canadian supplies will keep oat transportation costs firm into 2026.
Lower U.S. and Mexican production means tighter sugar supplies and greater reliance on imports headed into 2026.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

With the U.S.–Vietnam agreement nearing signature, U.S. cotton, corn, and soybean exporters could lock in new demand lanes just as global supply shifts.
Enforceable origin labels could create clearer premiums for U.S. cattle and address concerns some producers have had with competition from foreign imported beef.
A court decision that overturns Enlist labels would remove two major herbicides from use and reshape EPA’s future mitigation policies for other pesticides.
Rural businesses report softer sales, tougher hiring, and restrained investment — a backdrop that can pinch farm support capacity even if posted prices cool.
Friday’s release will be the first WASDE report in about two months, and early estimates indicate a corn surplus is still on the way.
Tyson expects another year of beef-segment losses due to tight cattle supplies, even as chicken, pork, and prepared foods strengthen overall margins.