Ethanol Production Rebounds as Demand Signals Turn Mixed

Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production moved higher late in December, offering continued support for corn demand even as fuel consumption softened at year’s end. Output rebounded to 1.12 million barrels per day during the week ending December 26, equivalent to 47.0 million gallons daily, according to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association. Production ran slightly above last year and well ahead of the three-year average, reinforcing a historically strong grind pace.

Despite the rebound, inventories continued to build. Ethanol stocks rose to 22.9 million barrels, driven primarily by Midwest increases, though total stocks remained below both last year and longer-term averages. That suggests supply is growing but not yet burdensome.

Gasoline supplied — a proxy for ethanol blending demand — declined week over week, reflecting seasonal travel slowdowns. However, demand remained solid compared to both last year and the three-year average, signaling underlying strength rather than demand erosion. Refiner and blender ethanol usage also stayed above historical norms despite a modest weekly pullback.

Exports cooled sharply after setting a recent record, but overseas shipments remain historically strong, helping balance domestic supply.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Shaun Haney with Real Ag Radio joined us to break down the USMCA review and what Canadian producers and exporters should be watching in the months ahead.
Fertilizer relief may be limited despite the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz this week. AgriSompo’s Brooks York discusses marketing strategies, crop insurance considerations, and other tips for producers navigating volatility this planting season.
Reduced driver supply may increase freight costs this season.
Overall, the report suggests a shift toward more comfortable supply levels, with demand emerging as a key factor to watch in the months ahead.
Lower shipping costs favor corn, while soybeans face pressure.
Sponsored
Matt Dolch with Syngenta discusses rootworm pressure, the latest trait technologies, and how corn growers can plan for 2027.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The sugar policy debate affects prices, trade, and farm stability.
Strong feedlot demand keeps beef-on-dairy calf premiums elevated.
Cattle producers face mounting pressure as U.S.-Mexico trade talks resume, but expanding drought, rising input costs, and policy work to improve the long-term industry outlook.
Lower U.S. ethanol production and stocks may support ethanol prices while strong export demand continues to support ethanol and corn markets.
More Farms File for Bankruptcy As Strong Farm Loan Demand Boosts Bank Earnings
China’s changing pork demand may limit export growth opportunities.