Expert: Basis Trends Upward Despite Mississippi River Levels Trending Lower

Hunter Biram, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas, is tracking Mississippi River water levels as grain shippers shift their focus to transportation following the wrap-up of fall harvest.

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (RFD-TV) — Hunter Biram, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas, is tracking Mississippi River water levels as grain shippers shift their focus to transportation following the wrap-up of fall harvest.

Biram joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to break down current river conditions, how they compare to previous years, and what they mean for barge freight costs as the industry moves deeper into the post-harvest shipping season.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Biram discussed where Mississippi River levels currently stand and whether these conditions align with typical seasonal patterns.

He said that right now, the river sits just below the critical level as set by the National Weather Service, but it is not nearly as low as we have seen in recent years. He also noted that, despite the river levels trending lower, they have not had an impact basis. Instead, the basis is trending upward.

Biram also outlined the latest outlook for river levels in the weeks ahead and explained the potential ripple effects on transportation costs and market timing if low levels persist. He also underscored the central role the river system plays in U.S. grain movement and how fluctuations can impact both exporters and producers, especially in the Southern U.S.

Related Stories
China’s reliance on imported soybeans remains entrenched, shaping global demand and trade leverage.
Cuba remains a steady, nearby buyer of U.S. poultry, pork, dairy, and staples, but legal and compliance risks could still affect shipping and payment channels.
Agriculture remains a key drag on regional growth amid weak prices and policy uncertainty.
While access to China remains uncertain, U.S. beef exporters are finding resilience and opportunity in other global markets, which could help maintain industry value and expand export opportunities.
American Farmland Trust shares guidance, research, and policy solutions to help farmers navigate the growing threat of PFAS, or “forever chemicals,” contaminating U.S. farmland.
Dr. Jeffrey Gold, president of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, joins us on Rural Health Matters to discuss winter safety reminders and preparedness.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Rising federal debt is increasing pressure on Washington to limit spending, which could tighten future funding and delivery for agricultural programs.
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.
CoBank’s 2026 Year Ahead Report cites global grain oversupply, easing inflation, rate cuts, and major data center growth that could reshape rural America.
Plan for sharp, short-term volatility after unexpected outages; permanent closures rarely trigger major price spread disruptions.
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down the scope of the U.S. Christmas Tree industry and what growers are up against.
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.