Expert: Beef herd rebuilding could take until next year

Dr. Scott Brown with the University of Missouri says there will be some key things to look out for that will indicate a return to normal beef herd levels, which is unlikely to happen until Jan. 2024.

beef.jpg

The United States beef cattle herd has taken a hit recently, reaching lows not seen in over 50 years, but experts say there are some indicators will start to grow.

Dr. Scott Brown with the University of Missouri says it is important to watch the quarterly cattle on feed numbers because those releases show the number of heifers on feed. Brown says for the herd to expand, that number needs to fall below 35 percent. July’s quarterly report had them sitting at 40 percent. He says cow slaughter numbers need to fall as well.

“I currently expect on January 1, 2024, beef cow inventory will still be lower, Brown said. “Don’t forget: when we start holding back to try to build the herd, that will create a bigger hole in production in the short term. Those heifers being held back to build the herd won’t be beef, so that hole has to happen as well.

And while things are looking up, the smaller herd size will likely stick around into next year.

“Again, I think it’s tough to know the exact turn here at this point, but I tell folks all the time don’t think this cycle is going to be exactly like what we went through in 2014,” he said. “Sometimes I remind us that back in 2014-2015, we were coming off of very high corn prices because of the drought of 2012, but corn prices were back below $4 a bushel. I hope we don’t see corn below $4 a bushel for corn producers anytime soon. It’s just different right now.”

The August Cattle on Feed report comes out on August 18. The next quarterly report including heifers on feed will be released in October.

Related Stories
Janie spends a day in the life with Pilar Martinez,and helps with her variety of chores on the massive Centennial Ranch in Dillon, Montana.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Starting Monday, April 29, the USDA will require free avian flu (HPAI H5N1) testing on all dairy cattle before interstate travel. Positive cases must be directly reported to the USDA for tracing.
However, economists say land values could falter if commodity prices fall in the New Year.
With the New Year comes new ideas, and lawmakers are still trying to find ways to fund the Farm Bill.
The United Soybean Board representatives say export and trade development is critical for increasing international demand.
It is National Farm Safety and Health Week—a time dedicated to recognizing the critical importance of safety on the farm. The National Education Center for Ag Safety (NECAS) usually hosts this week-long event during mid-September so farmers are reminded to prioritize their safety during the harvest season.
Analysts with the Propane Education & Research Council say the outlook for propane prices is positive for the fall harvest season.
Agriculture Shows
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Farm Traveler is for people who want to connect with their food and those who grow it. Thanks to direct-to-consumer businesses, agritourism, and social media, it’s now easier than ever to learn how our food is made and support local farmers. Here on the Farm Traveler, we want to connect you with businesses offering direct-to-consumer products you can try at home, agritourism sites you can visit with your family, and exciting new technologies that are changing how your food is being grown.
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.
Host Ben Bailey hops in the tractor cab, giving farmers 10 minutes to answer as many questions and grab as much cash as they can for their local FFA chapter.