Farm Income Downturn Intensifies As Policy Decisions Near

Farm Bureau economist John Newton says farm income has declined every quarter for three years.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Farmers are facing a third straight year of declining economic conditions as crop prices remain below breakeven and fertilizer and fuel costs add pressure. American Farm Bureau Federation economist John Newton says the downturn has now reached 12 consecutive quarters.

Farm production expenses have increased by $120 billion, or 34 percent, since 2020 and are approaching $500 billion annually. Newton reports crop prices remain 11 to nearly 40 percent below recent highs, eroding working capital and increasing borrowing needs.

The Kansas City Federal Reserve’s farm income index fell to 66 in the first quarter. Loan demand is near record levels, while weak farm equipment sales show producers are delaying major purchases as cash flow tightens.

Farmland values remain a source of balance-sheet strength, providing collateral and limiting broader financial stress. However, land equity does not automatically provide the operating cash needed to cover current production costs.

Newton says Senate action on year-round E15, the Farm Bill, and possible economic assistance could provide additional support for farm income, commodity demand, and rural businesses.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers face a deepening cost-price squeeze, while pending policy decisions could affect cash flow and market opportunities.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Record yields and exceptionally low BCFM strengthen U.S. corn’s competitive position in global markets.
Water access—not acreage alone—is driving where irrigation expands or contracts.
Credit stress is building for row-crop farms despite steady land values and slight price improvements.
The Lexington shutdown pushes national slaughter capacity utilization nearer long-run averages, underscoring how tight cattle supplies are reshaping packer operations.
Texas livestock producers face a heightened biosecurity threat as New World screwworm detections in northern Mexico coincide with FDA approval of the first topical treatment.
Working capital is tightening for crop farms, increasing reliance on operating loans even as land values steady in the broader sector.