WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. farm income is expected to be slightly lower in 2026, but the picture is more mixed than the headline number suggests. Economists with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) say higher government payments and steady expenses are helping cushion another year of market pressure.
Net farm income is forecast at $153.4 billion, down less than 1 percent from 2025. Net cash farm income, which better reflects money moving through farm accounts, is actually projected to rise to $158.5 billion. After adjusting for inflation, both measures remain above long-term averages.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Income support helps, but farm finances remain tight heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
The drag comes from cash receipts. Total farm receipts are expected to fall to $514.7 billion, driven largely by weaker livestock, dairy, and egg prices. Crop receipts show a modest nominal increase, led by corn, though gains fade after inflation.
Government payments are projected to rise sharply to $44.3 billion in 2026, driven by higher commodity program payments and continued disaster assistance. Production expenses are forecast to stay relatively flat, with higher livestock purchases and labor costs offset by lower feed and energy spending.
Bigger cows must wean proportionally heavier calves to justify higher ownership costs.
January 05, 2026 03:08 PM
·
Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
January 05, 2026 03:00 PM
·
Strong ethanol production and export trends continue to support corn demand despite seasonal fuel consumption softness.
January 05, 2026 02:49 PM
·
Cotton demand depends on demonstrating performance and reliability buyers can rely on, not messaging alone.
January 05, 2026 02:41 PM
·
Shaun Haney, Host of
RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us with his 2026 cattle market outlook and insights on beef prices.
January 05, 2026 10:41 AM
·
Farmer Bridge Assistance payments provide immediate balance-sheet support heading into 2026, but remain a short-term bridge rather than a substitute for long-term market recovery.
January 05, 2026 10:17 AM
·
High ownership does not always translate into high output, underscoring the importance of structural differences in understanding state-level farm performance.
December 28, 2025 03:00 PM
·
Record yields are cushioning production declines, but softer prices underscore the importance of cost control and market timing for vegetable growers.
December 28, 2025 08:00 AM
·
Cuba remains a small but dependable, cash-only outlet for U.S. grain and food products.
December 27, 2025 03:00 PM
·
