WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. farm income is expected to be slightly lower in 2026, but the picture is more mixed than the headline number suggests. Economists with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) say higher government payments and steady expenses are helping cushion another year of market pressure.
Net farm income is forecast at $153.4 billion, down less than 1 percent from 2025. Net cash farm income, which better reflects money moving through farm accounts, is actually projected to rise to $158.5 billion. After adjusting for inflation, both measures remain above long-term averages.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Income support helps, but farm finances remain tight heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
The drag comes from cash receipts. Total farm receipts are expected to fall to $514.7 billion, driven largely by weaker livestock, dairy, and egg prices. Crop receipts show a modest nominal increase, led by corn, though gains fade after inflation.
Government payments are projected to rise sharply to $44.3 billion in 2026, driven by higher commodity program payments and continued disaster assistance. Production expenses are forecast to stay relatively flat, with higher livestock purchases and labor costs offset by lower feed and energy spending.
Weaker U.S. dairy prices come as value-added exports expand and ingredient inventories tighten, creating mixed market signals for producers.
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