WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. farm income is expected to be slightly lower in 2026, but the picture is more mixed than the headline number suggests. Economists with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) say higher government payments and steady expenses are helping cushion another year of market pressure.
Net farm income is forecast at $153.4 billion, down less than 1 percent from 2025. Net cash farm income, which better reflects money moving through farm accounts, is actually projected to rise to $158.5 billion. After adjusting for inflation, both measures remain above long-term averages.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Income support helps, but farm finances remain tight heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
The drag comes from cash receipts. Total farm receipts are expected to fall to $514.7 billion, driven largely by weaker livestock, dairy, and egg prices. Crop receipts show a modest nominal increase, led by corn, though gains fade after inflation.
Government payments are projected to rise sharply to $44.3 billion in 2026, driven by higher commodity program payments and continued disaster assistance. Production expenses are forecast to stay relatively flat, with higher livestock purchases and labor costs offset by lower feed and energy spending.
Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
November 17, 2025 01:24 PM
·
Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
November 17, 2025 01:17 PM
·
Retail competition and improved supplies are helping offset food inflation, pushing Thanksgiving meal costs modestly lower despite higher prices for beef, eggs, and dairy.
November 16, 2025 03:00 PM
·
While agriculture doesn’t predict every recession, the sector’s long history of turning down before the broader economy
November 16, 2025 12:00 PM
·
ARC-CO delivers the bulk of 2024 support, offering key margin relief as producers manage tight operating conditions.
November 15, 2025 12:00 PM
·
Higher menu prices and tax-free tips are reshaping restaurant economics, sharply lifting server take-home pay even as diners face higher out-the-door costs.
November 15, 2025 08:00 AM
·
