NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — U.S. farmers grew more cautious in December as overall sentiment eased, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index slipped 3 points to 136, reflecting a softer long‑term outlook among producers. The dip was driven entirely by softer future outlooks rather than deterioration in current conditions.
The survey, conducted Dec. 1‑5 among 400 U.S. agricultural producers, suggests that while farmers remain hopeful about long‑term prospects, external economic pressures and export questions are tempering optimism as they plan for 2026 and beyond.
Analysis of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture shows the Future Expectations Index declined four points to 140, while the Current Conditions Index held steady at 128. Concerns about soybean exports were a central factor, particularly rising competition from Brazil. Nearly 86 percent of corn and soybean producers said they were concerned about Brazil’s export competitiveness, with almost half describing themselves as very concerned.
Despite those trade worries, producers’ views of their own farm finances remained relatively stable. Expectations for 2025 financial performance improved modestly, and optimism surrounding farmland values strengthened further. The long-term farmland value index reached a new record high, reflecting continued confidence in land as a core asset. Tariff confidence, however, softened. More producers expressed uncertainty about whether tariffs will strengthen agriculture over the long run, underscoring how trade policy remains a key sentiment risk heading into 2026.
Dr. Jim Mintert, professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to review the highlights from the latest survey.
In his interview with RFD-TV News, Mintert discussed the report’s findings on farmers’ perspectives on U.S. agricultural exports and how trade uncertainty is shaping expectations, particularly for soybeans. He also addressed survey results on farmers’ confidence in using tariffs to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy, noting whether sentiment shifted in the most recent data.
The conversation also touched on farmland values, with Mintert sharing insights into the current outlook and how producers are viewing land markets amid broader economic uncertainty. Mintert wrapped up the discussion by offering his overall takeaway from the latest Ag Economy Barometer and his outlook for the year ahead.
Shaun Haney joined RFD News to discuss the potential impact of the Trump-Xi summit uncertainty, ongoing agricultural trade talks, and why geopolitical developments could carry important implications for farmers and global commodity markets.
