NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Fertilizer prices relative to corn values rank among the worst historically for this time of year, increasing financial pressure on farmers preparing for spring planting and tightening already narrow margins across crop operations.
Analysts at DTN found, for the second week in a row, that all eight major fertilizers are more expensive than last month. One stood out: Urea. That nitrogen fertilizer is up 6 percent compared to January. The rest were higher, too, but by less than 5 percent.
National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) Chief Economist Krista Swanson told RFD NEWS that fertilizer is one of the most volatile input costs.
“It’s a relatively big chunk of the operating costs; it makes up, usually, about 35% of operating costs,” Swanson said. “It’s kind of the most volatile of the input costs, and so, even some small swings in fertilizer prices can have big implications for farm profitability, which is a big deal when we are in this profitability string that we’re in right now, where costs have been higher than prices the last few years.”
All fertilizers are more expensive year over year, with UAN up 18 percent and 10-34-0 (Ammonium Polyphosphate) up 4 percent.
Even so, the U.S. continues to face a fertilizer capacity deficit, even as manufacturers and distributors have moved aggressively to front-load key nutrient supplies into the domestic market. Rabobank analyst Samuel Taylor told RFD NEWS that recent data raises new questions about supply consistency.
“If you look at the cumulative imports of DAP into the U.S. market -- phosphate, most important phosphate -- it is an interesting chart from its like divergence from the norm,” Taylor explained. “In that, from April 1, it basically flat lines. So, there was nearly no DAP coming into the U.S. market, up until when the data we have got available (which is in November). It was almost impossible for distributors and retailers to actually build up inventory on that kind of context.”
Taylor says that while some fertilizer tariffs have been paused to improve supply flow, importers and distributors still face limited ability to build inventory.
“If it’s a tight global market with the countervailing duties and a deficit region such as India not getting its supply, that residual supply of Saudi Arabia that was making up the volumes lost from Morocco and Russia, they just decided to supply the west coast of India. So, there’s not necessarily the global availability to backfill that.”
This comes following President Trump’s executive order implementing the “Defense Production Act.” He says the order aims to boost U.S. manufacturing of glyphosate and phosphorus, calling the herbicide essential to national security and agriculture.
StoneX Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville reports that urea, UAN, and anhydrous ammonia currently have the second-worst price relationship to corn values on record for late winter, while DAP ranks tied for the third-worst after starting the year at historic highs. Although each nutrient faces different supply challenges, the combined effect forces producers to dedicate more expected bushels toward input costs.
Higher fertilizer expenses directly influence farm management decisions, including purchase timing, application rates, and operating loan needs. Many growers are weighing delayed buying strategies or adjustments to nutrient programs as planting approaches and working capital demands increase.
Geopolitical risk adds further uncertainty. Several major nitrogen and phosphate exporters rely on the Strait of Hormuz, making an escalation involving Iran a potential disruptor of shipments during peak seasonal demand. At the same time, limited Chinese phosphate exports and existing nitrogen supply constraints leave global markets with little buffer.
Looking ahead, fertilizer markets remain highly sensitive to international developments, with potential price relief tied to stability but significant upside risk if supply routes are interrupted.
