MOSCOW, IDAHO (RFD NEWS) — Weather continues to take a toll on winter wheat and barley production across parts of the West, with researchers in Idaho warning that drought, disease, and repeated freezes have created significant challenges for growers heading into harvest.
Juliet Marshall, a cereal crops specialist with the University of Idaho, says this spring’s weather has been particularly damaging.
“The month of April has turned out to be one of the coldest that I’ve seen,” Marshall said. “We’ve had consistent freezes and frosts, which have added a lot of damage to the crop situation.”
Marshall says winter barley has been hit especially hard. Many fields headed out earlier than normal and were exposed to repeated freezing temperatures, resulting in damaged grain heads and reduced yield potential.
“We have a lot of winter wheat and winter barley that is significantly damaged by the freezes and the frost,” she explained. “The winter barley pretty much has headed out too early and blanked the heads. A lot of it was extraordinarily short, so they mowed it off or put it off for forage.”
Multiple Stress Factors Impacting Wheat
Marshall says winter wheat is facing many of the same issues, but weather is only part of the problem.
In addition to drought and freeze damage, producers are also battling disease pressure, including barley yellow dwarf virus, which can reduce plant vigor and grain production.
“In some cases, it’s really short. It’s got barley yellow dwarf disease,” Marshall said. “The combination of the barley yellow dwarf diseases or other virus disease, in combination with the drought, in combination with the significant April freezes, has put our cropping situation significantly at risk.”
While researchers continue to evaluate the fields and estimate losses, Marshall says the damage appears to be far greater than early projections.
“I’d say it’s far more than five to ten percent,” she added.
Winter Wheat Conditions Remain Poor
The concerns in Idaho come as winter wheat conditions remain challenged across much of the country.
According to the latest USDA Crop Progress report, just 25 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent. Meanwhile, 46 percent fell into the poor-to-very-poor category, underscoring the ongoing struggles facing producers after months of weather-related setbacks.
With harvest approaching, researchers say yield losses will vary from field to field, making it difficult to fully quantify the damage at this stage. However, the combination of drought, disease pressure, and repeated spring freezes has raised concerns about production potential in several wheat-growing regions.
As combines begin rolling in the coming weeks, growers and grain markets alike will be watching closely for a clearer picture of how much this year’s weather challenges have ultimately reduced the crop.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to discuss current crop conditions and the trade issues influencing grain markets. In his interview with RFD NEWS, Williamson said USDA’s latest Crop Progress report showed few surprises, with planting progress running ahead of average.
Corn was reported at 97 percent planted and soybeans at 92 percent planted, both ahead of pace. He noted that crop conditions remain relatively strong, with 67 percent of the corn crop rated good-to-excellent and 65 percent of soybeans rated good-to-excellent.
However, Williamson points to winter wheat conditions as a lingering area of concern. Nationally, only 25 percent of the crop is rated good to excellent. Conditions in Kansas remain especially troubling, with just 14 percent of the state’s wheat crop receiving a good-to-excellent rating.
Looking ahead, Williamson said weather forecasts remain generally favorable across much of the Corn Belt and Delta, with a combination of timely rainfall and sunshine supporting crop development. As a result, he does not currently see any major weather threats to crop production over the next 10 days.
Beyond weather, Williamson discussed broader market influences, including energy markets, global trade, and fund activity. He noted that optimism remains surrounding potential trade developments with China, but so far, there have been no significant signs of renewed U.S. agricultural purchases.
Williamson also highlighted recent fund liquidation across grain markets and said traders are closely watching the Mississippi River, which remains in good shape for transportation despite lower water levels expected in the coming weeks.
On the livestock side, he noted that there have been no newly reported New World screwworm cases beyond those already announced, although quarantine measures and livestock movement protocols continue to pose logistical challenges for producers.
Looking ahead, Williamson said market participants are closely watching USDA’s upcoming WASDE report for additional guidance on supply-and-demand expectations.
The conversation also turned to the upcoming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Williamson emphasized the importance of export markets for American agriculture and said producers continue to closely monitor trade discussions, particularly as the industry seeks stronger demand from major buyers worldwide.
